Abstract. Physically based modelling of slope stability on a catchment scale is still a challenging task. When applying a physically based model on such a scale (1 : 10 000 to 1 : 50 000), parameters with a high impact on the model result should be calibrated to account for (i) the spatial variability of parameter values, (ii) shortcomings of the selected model, (iii) uncertainties of laboratory tests and field measurements or (iv) parameters that cannot be derived experimentally or measured in the field (e.g. calibration constants). While systematic parameter calibration is a common task in hydrological modelling, this is rarely done using physically based slope stability models. In the present study a dynamic, physically based, coupled hydrological-geomechanical slope stability model is calibrated based on a limited number of laboratory tests and a detailed multitemporal shallow landslide inventory covering two landslide-triggering rainfall events in the Laternser valley, Vorarlberg (Austria). Sensitive parameters are identified based on a local one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis. These parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, angle of internal friction for effective stress, cohesion for effective stress) are systematically sampled and calibrated for a landslide-triggering rainfall event in August 2005. The identified model ensemble, including 25 "behavioural model runs" with the highest portion of correctly predicted landslides and non-landslides, is then validated with another landslide-triggering rainfall event in May 1999. The identified model ensemble correctly predicts the location and the supposed triggering timing of 73.0 % of the observed landslides triggered in August 2005 and 91.5 % of the observed landslides triggered in May 1999. Results of the model ensemble driven with raised precipitation input reveal a slight increase in areas potentially affected by slope failure. At the same time, the peak run-off increases more markedly, suggesting that precipitation intensities during the investigated landslide-triggering rainfall events were already close to or above the soil's infiltration capacity.

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Abstract. Global warming has already affected European rivers and their aquatic biota, and climate models predict an increase of temperature in central Europe over all seasons. We simulated the influence of expected changes in heat wave intensity during the 21st century on water temperatures of a heavily impacted pre-alpine Austrian river and analysed future mitigating effects of riparian vegetation shade on radiant and turbulent energy fluxes using the deterministic Heat Source model. Modelled stream water temperature increased less than 1.5 • C within the first half of the century. Until 2100, a more significant increase of around 3 • C in minimum, maximum and mean stream temperatures was predicted for a 20-year return period heat event. The result showed clearly that in a highly altered river system riparian vegetation was not able to fully mitigate the predicted temperature rise caused by climate change but would be able to reduce water temperature by 1 to 2 • C. The removal of riparian vegetation amplified stream temperature increases. Maximum stream temperatures could increase by more than 4 • C even in annual heat events. Such a dramatic water temperature shift of some degrees, especially in summer, would indicate a total shift of aquatic biodiversity. The results demonstrate that effective river restoration and mitigation require re-establishing riparian vegetation and emphasize the importance of land-water interfaces and their ecological functioning in aquatic environments.

Floods and debris flows in small Alpine torrent catchments (<10 km2) arise from a combination of critical antecedent system state conditions and mostly convective precipitation events with high precipitation intensities. Thus, climate change may influence the magnitude–frequency relationship of extreme events twofold: by a modification of the occurrence probabilities of critical hydrological system conditions and by a change of event precipitation characteristics. Three small Alpine catchments in different altitudes in Western Austria (Ruggbach, Brixenbach and Längentalbach catchment) were investigated by both field experiments and process‐based simulation. Rainfall–runoff model (HQsim) runs driven by localized climate scenarios (CNRM‐RM4.5/ARPEGE, MPI‐REMO/ECHAM5 and ICTP‐RegCM3/ECHAM5) were used in order to estimate future frequencies of stormflow triggering system state conditions. According to the differing altitudes of the study catchments, two effects of climate change on the hydrological systems can be observed. On one hand, the seasonal system state conditions of medium altitude catchments are most strongly affected by air temperature‐controlled processes such as the development of the winter snow cover as well as evapotranspiration. On the other hand, the unglaciated high‐altitude catchment is less sensitive to climate change‐induced shifts regarding days with critical antecedent soil moisture and desiccated litter layer due to its elevation‐related small proportion of sensitive areas. For the period 2071–2100, the number of days with critical antecedent soil moisture content will be significantly reduced to about 60% or even less in summer in all catchments. In contrast, the number of days with dried‐out litter layers causing hydrophobic effects will increase by up to 8%–11% of the days in the two lower altitude catchments. The intensity analyses of heavy precipitation events indicate a clear increase in rain intensities of up to 10%.

In this study we produce two urban development scenarios estimating potential urban sprawl and optimized development concerning building construction, and we simulate their influence on air temperature, surface temperatures and human thermal comfort. We select two heat waves representative for present and future conditions of the mid 21 st century and simulations are run with the Town Energy Balance Model (TEB) coupled online and offline to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Global and regional climate change under the RCP8.5 scenario causes an increase of daily maximum air temperature in Vienna by 7 K. The daily minimum air temperature will increase by 2-4 K. Changes caused by urban growth or densification mainly affect air temperature and human thermal comfort locally where new urbanisation takes place and does not occur significantly in the central districts. A combination of near zero-energy standards and increasing albedo of building materials on the city scale accomplishes a maximum reduction of urban canyon temperature achieved by changes in urban parameters of 0.9 K for the minima and 0.2 K for the maxima. Local scale changes of different adaptation measures show that insulation of buildings alone increases the maximum wall surface temperatures by more than 10 K or the maximum mean radiant temperature (MRT) in the canyon by 5 K. Therefore, measures to reduce MRT within the urban canyons like tree shade are needed to complement the proposed measures. This study concludes that the rising air temperatures expected by climate change puts an unprecedented heat burden on Viennese inhabitants, which cannot easily be reduced by measures concerning buildings within the city itself. Additionally, measures such as planting trees to provide shade, regional water sensitive planning and global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to reduce temperature extremes are required.