Paleoseismological data for the Wasatch and San Andreas fault zones have led to the formulation of the characteristic earthquake model, which postulates that individual faults and fault segments tend to generate essentially same size or characteristic earthquakes having a relatively narrow range of magnitudes near the maximum. Analysis of scarp-derived colluvium in trench exposures across the Wasatch fault provides estimates of the timing and displacement associated with individual surface faulting earthquakes. At all of the sites studied, the displacement per event has been consistently large; measured values range from 1.6 to 2.6 m, and the average is about 2 m. On the basis of variability in the timing of individual events as well as changes in scarp morphology and fault geometry, six major segments are recognized along the Wasatch fault. On the basis of the most likely number of surface faulting events (18) that have occurred on segments of the Wasatch fault zone during the past 8000 years, an average recurrence interval of 400-666 years with a preferred average of 444 years is calculated for the entire zone. Geologic data on the distribution of slip associated with prehistoric earthquakes and slip rates along the south-central segment of the San Andreas fault suggest that the M 8 1857 earthquake is a characteristic earthquake for this segment. Comparisons of earthquake recurrence relationships on both the Wasatch and San Andreas faults based on historical seismicity data and geologic data show that a linear (constant b value) extrapolation of the cumulative recurrence curve from the smaller magnitudes leads to gross underestimates of the frequency of occurrence of the large or characteristic earthquakes.Only by assuming a low b value in the moderate magnitude range can the seismicity data on small earthquakes be reconciled with geologic data on large earthquakes. The characteristic earthquake appears to be a fundamental aspect of the behavior of the Wasatch and San Andreas faults and may apply to many other faults as well. WASATCH FAULT ZONEThe Wasatch fault zone (Figure 1) has not ruptured historically. However, detailed paleoseismologic studies at sites along the zone [Swan et al., 1980; Schwartz et al., 1983] have confirmed that it has generated repeated large-magnitude events in Holocene time and have yielded information on the timing and size of these events. On the basis of data from the first two 5681

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In this paper we present a methodology, data, and regression equations for calculating the fault rupture hazard at sites near steeply dipping, strike-slip faults. We collected and digitized on-fault and off-fault displacement data for 9 global strikeslip earthquakes ranging from moment magnitude M 6.5 to M 7.6 and supplemented these with displacements from 13 global earthquakes compiled by Wesnousky (2008), who considers events up to M 7.9. Displacements on the primary fault fall off at the rupture ends and are often measured in meters, while displacements on secondary (offfault) or distributed faults may measure a few centimeters up to more than a meter and decay with distance from the rupture. Probability of earthquake rupture is less than 15% for cells 200 m × 200 m and is less than 2% for 25 m × 25 m cells at distances greater than 200 m from the primary-fault rupture. Therefore, the hazard for off-fault ruptures is much lower than the hazard near the fault. Our data indicate that rupture displacements up to 35 cm can be triggered on adjacent faults at distances out to 10 km or more from the primary-fault rupture. An example calculation shows that, for an active fault which has repeated large earthquakes every few hundred years, fault rupture hazard analysis should be an important consideration in the design of structures or lifelines that are located near the principal fault, within about 150 m of well-mapped active faults with a simple trace and within 300 m of faults with poorly defined or complex traces.

We present a methodology for conducting a site-specific probabilistic analysis of fault displacement hazard. Two approaches are outlined. The first relates the occurrence of fault displacement at or near the ground surface to the occurrence of earthquakes in the same manner as is done in a standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for ground shaking. The methodology for this approach is taken directly from PSHA methodology with the ground-motion attenuation function replaced by a fault displacement attenuation function. In the second approach, the rate of displacement events and the distribution for fault displacement are derived directly from the characteristics of the faults or geologic features at the site of interest. The methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) was developed for a normal faulting environment and the probability distributions we present may have general application in similar tectonic regions. In addition, the general methodology is applicable to any region and we indicate the type of data needed to apply the methodology elsewhere.

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