The Arabian Sea is an exceptionally complex system that hosts a highly productive marine ecosystem. This intense productivity leads to high oxygen consumption at depth that maintains, together with the sluggish circulation, the world’s thickest oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). While observations have been scarce in the region, evidence for a recent (1960-2020) decline in oxygen is emerging in the northern Arabian Sea. However, in the longer term (2050 to 2100) the future evolution of the OMZ is more uncertain, as the model projections that have been carried out are not consistent with each other. On the one hand, this reflects the limitations of current generation models that do not adequately represent key physical and biogeochemical processes, resulting in large O2 biases in the region under present-day conditions. On the other hand, the inherent difficulty of predicting future O2 conditions in the Arabian Sea is a consequence of the sensitivity of O2 supply and consumption to local and remote changes that evolve on different timescales. Here we aim to synthesize current knowledge of the Arabian Sea OMZ in relation to important factors controlling its intensity and review its recent change and potential future evolution. In particular, we explore potential causes of the differences in recent and future O2 trends in the region and identify key challenges to our ability to project future OMZ changes and discuss ideas for the way forward.

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> The Canary Current System (CanCS) is a major Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (EBUS), known for its high nearshore productivity and for sustaining large fisheries. Only a part of the inorganic nutrients that upwell along Northwest Africa are being used to fuel the high nearshore productivity. The remainder together with some of the newly formed organic nutrients are exported offshore into the adjacent oligotrophic subtropical gyre of the North Atlantic. Yet, the offshore reach of these nutrients and their importance for the biogeochemistry of the open North Atlantic is not yet fully quantified. Here, we determine the lateral transport of both organic and inorganic nitrogen from the Canary upwelling and investigate the timescales, reach, and structure of offshore transport using a Lagrangian modelling approach. To this end, we track all water parcels entering the coastal ocean and upwelling along the Northwest African coast between 14° N and 35° N, as simulated by an eddy-resolving configuration of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Our model analysis suggests that the vast majority of the upwelled waters originate from offshore and below the euphotic zone (70 m depth), and once upwelled remain in the top 100 m. The offshore transport is intense, yet it varies greatly along the coast. The central CanCS (21° N–28° N) transports the largest amount of water offshore, thanks to a larger upwelling volume and a faster offshore transport. In contrast, the southern CanCS (14° N–21° N) exports more nitrogen from the nearshore, primarily because of the higher nitrogen-content of its upwelling waters. Beyond 200 km, this nitrogen offshore transport declines rapidly because the shallow depth of most water parcels supports high organic matter formation and subsequent export of the organic nitrogen to depth. The horizontal pattern of offshore transport is characterized by latitudinally alternating offshore-onshore corridors indicating a strong contribution of mesoscale eddies and filaments to the mean transport. Around 1/3 of the total offshore transport of water occurs around major capes along the CanCS. The persistent filaments associated with these capes are responsible for an up to four-fold enhancement of the offshore transport of water and nitrogen in the first 400 km. Much of this water and nitrogen stems from upwelling at quite some distance from the capes, confirming the capes' role in collecting water from along the coast. North of Cape Blanc and within the first 500 km from the coast, water recirculation is a dominant feature of offshore transport. This process, likely associated with mesoscale eddies, tends to reduce the efficiency of offshore transport. This process is less important in the southern CanCS along the Mauritanian coast. The Canary upwelling is modelled to supply around 44 mmol N m<sup>−2</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> and 7 mmol N m<sup>−2</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> to the North Atlantic Tropical Gyral (NATR) and the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyral East (NASE) Longhurst provinces, respectively. In the NATR, this represents nearly half (45 ± 15 %) of the estimated total new production, while in the NASE, this fraction is small (3.5 ± 1.5 %). Our results highlight the importance of the CanCS upwelling as a key source of nutrient to the open North Atlantic and stress the need for improving the representation of EBUS in global coarse resolution models.</p>

Abstract. The Canary Current System (CanCS) is a major eastern boundary upwelling system (EBUS), known for its high nearshore productivity and for sustaining a large fishery. It is also an important but not well quantified source of nitrogen to the adjacent oligotrophic subtropical gyre of the North Atlantic. Here, we use a Lagrangian modeling approach to quantify this offshore transport and investigate its timescales, reach and contribution to the fueling of productivity in the offshore regions. In our Lagrangian model, we release nearly 10 million particles off the northwestern African coast and then track all those that enter the nearshore region and upwell along the coast between 14 and 35∘ N. We then follow them as they are transported offshore, also tracking the biogeochemical transformations, permitting us to construct biogeochemical budgets along the offshore moving particles. The three-dimensional velocity field as well as the biogeochemical tracers and fluxes are taken from an eddy-resolving configuration of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Our Lagrangian model analysis reveals a very intense offshore transport of nitrogen, with about 20 %–40 % in the form of organic nitrogen. The transport varies greatly along the coast. Even though the central CanCS (21–28∘ N) transports the largest amount of water offshore, its offshore transport of nitrogen is somewhat smaller than that in the southern CanCS (14–21∘ N), primarily because of the higher nitrogen content of the upwelling waters there. Around one-third of the total offshore transport of water occurs around major capes along the CanCS. The persistent filaments associated with these capes are responsible for an up to 4-fold enhancement of the offshore transport of water and nitrogen in the first 400 km. Much of this water and nitrogen stems from upwelling at quite some distance from the capes, confirming the capes' role in collecting water from along the coast. North of Cape Blanc and within the first 500 km from the coast, water recirculation is a dominant feature of offshore transport. This process, likely associated with mesoscale eddies, tends to reduce the efficiency of offshore transport. The Canary upwelling is modeled to supply around 44 and 7 mmol N m−2 yr−1 to the North Atlantic Tropical Gyral (NATR) and the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyral East (NASE) Longhurst provinces, respectively. In the NATR, this represents nearly half (53 ± 26 %) of the estimated total new production, while in the NASE, this fraction is small (4 ± 2 %). Our results highlight the importance of the CanCS upwelling as a key source of nitrogen to the open North Atlantic and stress the need for improving the representation of EBUS in global coarse-resolution models.

Lagrangian experiment details We conduct quantitative then qualitative experiments with ARIANE. In the quantitative experiment, particles are released on a strip defined by a bathymetry criterion based on the onshore water flow volume into the coastal region. Each particle is tagged