BackgroundIllicit cigarettes comprise more than 11% of tobacco consumption and 17% of consumption in low- and middle-income countries. Illicit cigarettes, defined as those that evade taxes, lower consumer prices, threaten national tobacco control efforts, and reduce excise tax collection.MethodsThis paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette consumption within Indonesia using two methods: the discrepancies between legal cigarette sales and domestic consumption estimated from surveys, and discrepancies between imports recorded by Indonesia and exports recorded by trade partners. Smuggling plays a minor role in the availability of illicit cigarettes because Indonesians predominantly consume kreteks, which are primarily manufactured in Indonesia.ResultsLooking at the period from 1995 to 2013, illicit cigarettes first emerged in 2004. When no respondent under-reporting is assumed, illicit consumption makes up 17% of the domestic market in 2004, 9% in 2007, 11% in 2011, and 8% in 2013. Discrepancies in the trade data indicate that Indonesia was a recipient of smuggled cigarettes for each year between 1995 and 2012. The value of this illicit trade ranges from less than $1 million to nearly $50 million annually. Singapore, China, and Vietnam together accounted for nearly two-thirds of trade discrepancies over the period. Tax losses due to illicit consumption amount to between Rp 4.1 and 9.3 trillion rupiah, 4% to 13% of tobacco excise revenue, in 2011 and 2013.ConclusionsDue to the predominance of kretek consumption in Indonesia and Indonesia’s status as the predominant producer of kreteks, illicit domestic production is likely the most important source for illicit cigarettes, and initiatives targeted to combat this illicit production carry the promise of the greatest potential impact.

The literature shows that children born in a large family tend to adopt the same family norm as their parents. This similarity may occur because values, norms, as well as reproductive behaviours are transmitted from parents to their offspring whereby this transmission may determine the fertility rate. For Indonesia, given that the family planning program has successfully halved the fertility rate, yet for the last decade, it remains at 2.6 children per woman. Such phenomenon shows that even though most women have adopted small family norm, but a sizeable share continue to have more than two children. This study aims to examine the effect of mother's fertility behaviour on woman's reproductive intention. Ever-married women aged 15-49 years old in 2014 who have information about their biological mother are analysed by using data from Indonesian Family Life Survey. Zero-inflated Poisson regression model is used to estimate the transmission effect. The sample is stratified by parity. The results show that mother's fertility is not associated with childless woman's fertility intention, but with higher parity woman. Women with many siblings tend to have more children. This finding supports the presence of intergenerational transmission of family norm in Indonesia.

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This article examines the role of education in the likelihood of being never married among older adults in Indonesia. Following the Multiple Equilibrium Framework, our paper argues that increasing education imposes a more common trend of singlehood since marriage continues to be a near universal norm in Indonesia. Previous research found that increase in education delays marriage, but few studies have paid attention to the role of education in the decision to stay single. We use Indonesia National Socio-Economic Survey or SUSENAS 2007 and 2017 - two datasets with ten years span - to see whether there has been a change in the effect of education on the probability of permanent singlehood among women and men aged 40-65. The result from the logistic regression confirms a U-shaped relationship between education and singleness propensity. Our key finding is that an additional year of schooling reduces the probability of being single up until senior secondary level, while having education beyond high school increases the probability of being single. Our result implies that traditional norm towards gender role remains strong in Indonesia. We also find that both highly educated women and men have similar likelihood to stay single in this setting.

This study aims to study maternal mental health’s association to stunting in children under five years old in Indonesia, which is related to mothers, children, and households’ characteristics based on the age group of children under five years old. This study uses longitudinal data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) in 2007 and 2014 with the Logistic Regression method. Maternal mental health was measured using the CESD-10 instrument. The results showed that in the children’s age group of 0-59 months and 24-59 months, an increase in the total CESD-10 score was associated with stunting in children after being controlled by all the characteristics. At age 0-23 months, the increase in the total score of CESD-10 was not associated with stunting. Maternal height, breastfeeding duration, child age, birth weight, and residence location were associated with stunting in all age groups. Maternal education and expenditure quintiles were associated with stunting in the 0-59 months and 24-59 months age groups. Meanwhile, two variables only relate to the incidence of stunting in one age group of children under five, namely maternal age (0-59 months of children under five) and sanitary conditions (24-59 months of children under five).