Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities. Regional Studies. Using Bayesian posterior model probabilities and data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian minimum comparable areas (MCAs) over the period 1970-2010, two theoretical settings of population growth dynamics resulting in two spatial econometric specifications in combination with a wide range of potential neighbourhood matrices are tested against each other. The best performing combination counts five determinants producing significant long-term spatial spillover effects. Ignoring these spillovers, as many previous population growth studies have done, is shown to underestimate their impact and thus the effectiveness of policy measures acting on these determinants.

No abstract

This paper evaluates the micro‐impacts of regional development funds in Brazil—the Constitutional Financing Funds (CFF)—using fixed effects panel data models and generalized propensity score between 2000 and 2012. Assessing the industrial and commerce/services sectors using fixed effects models, the results provide weak evidence of a positive and statistically significant impact of the CFF on job creation and no statistically significant impact on labor productivity growth at the firm level. Regarding dose‐response estimates, the results present evidence of nonlinear effects after three years of financing, suggesting that the amount of subsidized credit plays an important role in creating jobs and improving firm productivity.