Purpose
Achilles tendon ruptures (ATR) are career-threatening injuries in elite soccer players due to the decreased sports performance they commonly inflict. This study presents an exploratory data analysis of match participation before and after ATRs and an evaluation of the performance of a machine learning (ML) model based on pre-injury features to predict whether a player will return to a previous level of match participation.
Methods
The website
transfermarkt.com
was mined, between January and March of 2021, for relevant entries regarding soccer players who suffered an ATR while playing in first or second leagues. The difference between average minutes played per match (MPM) 1 year before injury and between 1 and 2 years after the injury was used to identify patterns in match participation after injury. Clustering analysis was performed using
k
-means clustering. Predictions of post-injury match participation were made using the XGBoost classification algorithm. The performance of this model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Brier score loss (BSL).
Results
Two hundred and nine players were included in the study. Data from 32,853 matches was analysed. Exploratory data analysis revealed that forwards, midfielders and defenders increased match participation during the first year after injury, with goalkeepers still improving at 2 years. Players were grouped into four clusters regarding the difference between MPMs 1 year before injury and between 1 and 2 years after the injury. These groups ranged between a severe decrease (
n
= 34; − 59 ± 13 MPM), moderate decrease (
n
= 75; − 25 ± 8 MPM), maintenance (
n
= 70; 0 ± 8 MPM), or increase (
n
= 30; 32 ± 13 MPM). Regarding the predictive model, the average AUROC after cross-validation was 0.81 ± 0.10, and the BSL was 0.12, with the most important features relating to pre-injury match participation.
Conclusion
Most players take 1 year to reach peak match participation after an ATR. Good performance was attained using a ML classifier to predict the level of match participation following an ATR, with features related to pre-injury match participation displaying the highest importance.
Level of evidence
I.
A instabilidade ligamentar crónica e sintomática tem frequentemente indicação cirúrgica. Quando um doente apresenta simultaneamente indicação cirúrgica em várias articulações é frequente optar-se pelo tratamento faseado, aguardando pela recuperação total de uma articulação antes de se proceder a outra cirurgia. O presente artigo apresenta um caso clínico que combina uma instabilidade patelofemoral recidivante com uma instabilidade crónica do tornozelo, homolateral, para as quais se optou pelo tratamento cirúrgico num só tempo. Ilustrando a possibilidade de conjugar cirurgias em articulações do mesmo membro quando o período e protocolo de reabilitação s o semelhantes.
Introduction: The biggest challenge in the treatment of acute ankle sprain is the uncertainty of the prognosis. The traditional classifications have several interpretations and little correlation with prognosis. In this study we propose a new classification for acute ankle sprain only based on clinical criteria.Material and Methods: We prospectively evaluated all patients with an ankle sprain, aged between 18 and 45 years, admitted to a hospital during a 24 month period. The minimum follow-up period was 12 months. The sprains were classified, in the first few days (CASCaIS-Initial), according to autonomous gait capacity, inspection and palpation. After a few weeks (CASCaIS-Deferred), it was complemented with the mechanical evaluation of ligaments through the ankle pivot test.Results: Among the 49 patients who completed the follow-up, none of those who had a pivot-negative test progressed to chronic ankle instability (CAI). Nine of the 33 patients (27%) with a positive pivot progressed to CAI (p = 0.022). The evaluation of CASCaIS-Deferred demonstrated an association with CAI (p = 0.018).Conclusion: This classification proved to be a simple, inexpensive, and reliable tool that clinicians can use to determine the prognosis of the sprain.
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