The correlation between macroeconomic dynamics and the inflation rate is the subject of many economic studies. The principles of monetary policy are developed in classical economics studies, which are based on the theories of Keynes, Phillips, Campbell, etc. However, classic approaches require practical validation, especially with regard to modern economic trends in times of crisis and emerging economies. Therefore, the purpose of the paper is to investigate and summarize the impact of inflation targeting and other key monetary policy instruments on fundamental economic indicators in Ukraine during periods of stability and crises. An empirical analysis is based on official statistics from Ukraine for 2011–2019. This study uses econometric methods (multivariate regression and simultaneous equation model), which are applied for the general and transmission impact of inflation on the estimation of economic growth. The results prove that inflation does not affect (less than 0.46 linear correlation) fundamental economic indicators during periods of real GDP growth and a quarterly CPI level of less than 2%. On the other hand, there are significant simultaneous regressions (more than 0.8 coefficients of determination) between unemployed, spending on real final consumption, hryvnia exchange rate and monetary policy instruments (discount rate, international reserves, amount of government bonds, M3 monetary aggregate) for periods when the quarterly CPI (consumer price index) is more than 2%. Therefore, the traditional monetary policy implications are discussed for emerging economies.

The main task for the Central Bank is ensuring the stability of the national currency. For this purpose, it tends to use traditional monetary regulation instruments. There are interest rates regulation, currencies intervention, administrative restriction, money supply adjustment and so on. A significant number of these traditional tools are effective. However, it is very difficult to assess the effectiveness of the regulators influence. Therefore, the purpose of the work is to define the theoretical substantiation of the basic monetary regulation instruments effectiveness and estimate its influence on the economy growth indicators in Ukraine. This article is based on the theoretical principles and methods of macroeconomic analysis; the system approach methods to define the main monetary regulation instruments of finance system and economy. The study presents a regression models with paired and multiple variables. For these models R-Studio instruments are the main tools of quality estimation and results interpretation. The article shows the results of statistical analysis of national currency rate and consumer price index which is based on open data of Ukraine economy trends for the period from 2007 till 2019. Traditionally econometric methods are used to find out long run relationships between basic economy indicators (agriculture and industry outputs, average salary, stock index growth etc.) and both monetary information and regulation instruments. Authors develop the regressive models of influence of Central Bank regulation instruments of monetary and economic stability. The paper presents conclusions regarding trends and problems in the implementation of Ukraine's monetary policy, it's influences on the currency stability and economic growth trends. Implementation of the proposed measures will increase monetary policy effectiveness and define the directions of the further research in forecasting inflationary and course-forming factors of the development of the national economy and financial system of Ukraine. The key focus of further research is to define an adequate indicator that determines the real level of inflation, which must evaluate a whole range of factors reducing the real value of money.

Abstract. The first cryptocurrency was born in 2008. Already today, virtual financial assets and tokens are a significant part of trading in global financial markets. The cryptocurrency market capitalization currently exceeds 600 billion U.S. dollars. However, there is a lot of discussion about cryptocurrency functions and the correlation between Bitcoin prices and the basic economic indices. Therefore, the purpose of the paper is to define the statistical substantiation of the influence of fundamental economic indicators on the market of virtual financial assets and the possibility of using cryptocurrency as the investment assets. This article is based on the theoretical principles and methods of econometric analysis; the system approach methods to define the main vehicles and trends of the international financial market. The study presents correlation analysis, regression models with paired and multiple variables. For these models, R-Studio instruments are the main tools of quality estimation and results interpretation. The article shows the results of the correlation analysis of Bitcoin’s U.S. dollar price dynamics and changes in the main stock, monetary market indicators, cryptocurrencies market tendency, levels of the United States fundamental economic indicators for the period from 2014 to 2021. Traditional multifactorial regression models are used to determine the level and the impact of individual indicators of the world stock market at the U.S. dollar price of Bitcoin. A comparison of the level of volatility of key investment financial assets in the market of cryptocurrencies and stock markets is carried out. The authors determine the level of correlation dependence and make a regression model of the impact of fundamental economic indicators and stock market trends on the dynamics of U.S. dollar prices for key cryptocurrencies. The article presents conclusions on trends and problems of using cryptocurrencies as an investment asset, considering volatility and profitability. Implementation of the results allows to clarify the economic essence of cryptocurrencies as a specific financial vehicle, as well as improving the existing models of investment management, considering the statistical characteristics of the virtual financial assets. The main direction of further research is to build models of medium-term prediction of prices for the main cryptocurrencies as an investment asset in conditions of changes in global financial markets, which must consider the fundamental economic indicators of the world economy and trends on key stock and commodity markets. Keywords: virtual financial asset, cryptocurrency, bitcoin, econometric model, financial market, economic indicator, investment asset. JEL Classification D53, E44, G15, C58 Formulas: 3; fig.: 3; tabl.: 3; bibl.: 31.

Purpose. The paper’s purpose is to analyze and predict the food security index in Ukraine and to estimate the risk level of its reduction. Methodology / approach. The following models are used for forecasting: the Holt’s two-parameter model – to forecast the dynamics of caloric content of the daily diet and integral food security index; the ARIMA model – for modeling the food economic affordability. The autocorrelation function structure analysis is used to determine the adequacy of the models. The article discusses the procedure of assessing food security risk based on the properties of the econometric forecast error. The annual data of Ukraine were used for assessing the forecasts for the time interval between 1995 and 2018. Results. The paper presents the results of predicting the food security index in the context of macroeconomic instability. The trend (deterministic) and random components for the level of calorie consumption are revealed. The forecast of food availability is presented. The forecast estimates of the Food Security Index of Ukraine for the period up to 2022 are considered. The assessment of price elasticities, household incomes and inflation for basic food products is made. As a result of assessing the level of macroeconomic instability, the structural elements of food security for Ukraine were identified. The article assesses the dynamics of changes in consumption of certain commodity items of foodstuff as components of food security. There is a creation of an alternative methodology for forecasting individual economic indices in the absence of stable trends in the economy of the country based on the use of econometric analysis proposed in the research. It substantiates the use of multi-step methods of forecasting economic indices. It is proved that the integrated forecast of the food security index of Ukraine is in satisfactory state and shows a slight upward trend during the period 2020–2022, but the risks of a decline in the integral index are somewhere beyond satisfactory. Originality / scientific novelty. The results of the individual food security indices forecast, and the integral Food Security Index of Ukraine analysis it is possible to state a satisfactory condition that is unlikely to change in the near future. The alternative forecasting method for individual economic parameters in conditions of the unstable national economy trends is firstly proposed. Practical value / implications. The reported forecast values indicate a decrease in the adequacy of consumption for most foodstuffs. This is most pronounced for the consumption of products of animal origin, which are far from the norm. The non-structural forecasts indicate current trends in the state of food security, which will persist if the impact on the food system by the general state of the country's economy remains unchanged. The main results of the study can be used to estimate the food affordability risks and risks of health deterioration for the population.

Financial potential is an important part of enterprise activities. The technique of the enterprise's financial potential assessment is offered in the paper. It is presented by particular stages, where each stage is related to a certain task. The characteristics of the company's financial potential, based on the analysis of the related literature, are determined. The implementation of each task is carried out. Thus, the study proposes a mechanism for managing the financial potential of enterprises, which allows to emphasize the elements that can be useful for economic development. It is based on the general strategic principles of the enterprise management. The study results can be used to assess enterprise purposes and develop the formation goals of its financial potential. It can also help to forecast and separate main directions of accumulation, formation, and distribution of financial resources. It should be noted, that analysis and control over the financial potential formation strategy, as well as the use of analysis results for specifying the strategic directions of the enterprise development, are of high importance. Therefore, the management of the financial potential is a system of rational management of business financing, which includes the formation of financial relations, emerging as a result of finance resources flow.