Article type: Standard 23Word count: 8,600 24 Number of tables: 4 25Number of references: 67 26 27 2 Abstract 28 1. Habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation are key threats to the long-term persistence of 29 carnivores, which are also susceptible to direct persecution by people. Integrating natural and 30 social science methods to examine how habitat configuration/quality and human-predator 31 relations may interact in space and time to effect carnivore populations within human-32 dominated landscapes will help prioritise conservation investment and action effectively. 33 2. We propose a socio-ecological modelling framework to evaluate drivers of carnivore decline 34 in landscapes where predators and people coexist. By collecting social and ecological data at 35 the same spatial scale, candidate models can be used to quantify and tease apart the relative 36 importance of different threats. 37 3. We apply our methodological framework to an empirical case study, the threatened guiña 38 (Leopardus guigna) in the temperate forest ecoregion of southern Chile, to illustrate its use. 39Existing literature suggests that the species is declining due to habitat loss, fragmentation and 40 persecution in response to livestock predation. Data used in modelling were derived from four 41 seasons of camera-trap surveys, remote-sensed images and household questionnaires. 42 4. Occupancy dynamics were explained by habitat configuration/quality covariates rather than by 43 human-predator relations. Guiñas can tolerate a high degree of habitat loss (>80% within a 44 home range). They are primarily impacted by fragmentation and land subdivision (larger farms 45 being divided into smaller ones). Ten percent of surveyed farmers (N=233) reported illegally 46 killing the species over the past decade. 47 5. Synthesis and applications. By integrating ecological and social data into a single modelling 48 framework, our study demonstrates the value of an interdisciplinary approach to assessing the 49 potential threats to a carnivore. It has allowed us to tease apart effectively the relative 50 importance of different potential extinction pressures, make informed conservation 51 recommendations and prioritise where future interventions should be targeted. Specifically for 52 the guiña, we have identified that human-dominated landscapes with large intensive farms can 53 be of conservation value, as long as an appropriate network of habitat patches are maintained 54 3 within the matrix. Conservation efforts to secure the long-term persistence of the species should 55 focus on reducing habitat fragmentation, rather than human persecution in our study system. 56

Successful conservation of species that roam and disperse over large areas requires detailed understanding of their movement patterns and connectivity between subpopulations. But empirical information on movement, space use, and connectivity is lacking for many species, and data acquisition is often hindered when study animals cross international borders. The African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) exemplifies such species that require vast undisturbed areas to support viable, self-sustaining populations.To study wild dog dispersal and investigate potential barriers to movements and causes of mortality during dispersal, between 2016 and 2019 we followed the fate of 16 dispersing coalitions (i.e., same-sex group of ≥1 dispersing African wild dogs) in northern Botswana through global positioning system (GPS)-satellite telemetry. Dispersing wild dogs covered ≤54 km in 24 hours and traveled 150 km to Namibia and 360 km to Zimbabwe within 10 days. Wild dogs were little hindered in their movements by natural landscape features, whereas medium to densely human-populated landscapes represented obstacles to dispersal. Human-caused mortality was responsible for >90% of the recorded deaths. Our results suggest that a holistic approach to the management and conservation of highly mobile species is necessary to develop effective research and evidence-based conservation programs across transfrontier protected areas, including the need for coordinated research efforts through collaboration between national and international conservation authorities.

Context Dispersal of individuals contributes to long-term population persistence, yet requires a sufficient degree of landscape connectivity. To date, connectivity has mainly been investigated using least-cost analysis and circuit theory, two methods that make assumptions that are hardly applicable to dispersal. While these assumptions can be relaxed by explicitly simulating dispersal trajectories across the landscape, a unified approach for such simulations is lacking. Objectives Here, we propose and apply a simple three-step approach to simulate dispersal and to assess connectivity using empirical GPS movement data and a set of habitat covariates. Methods In step one of the proposed approach, we use integrated step-selection functions to fit a mechanistic movement model describing habitat and movement preferences of dispersing individuals. In step two, we apply the parameterized model to simulate dispersal across the study area. In step three, we derive three complementary connectivity maps; a heatmap highlighting frequently traversed areas, a betweenness map pinpointing dispersal corridors, and a map of inter-patch connectivity indicating the presence and intensity of functional links between habitat patches. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed three-step approach in a case study in which we use GPS data collected on dispersing African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) inhabiting northern Botswana. Results Using step-selection functions we successfully parametrized a detailed dispersal model that described dispersing individuals’ habitat and movement preferences, as well as potential interactions among the two. The model substantially outperformed a model that omitted such interactions and enabled us to simulate 80,000 dispersal trajectories across the study area. Conclusion By explicitly simulating dispersal trajectories, our approach not only requires fewer unrealistic assumptions about dispersal, but also permits the calculation of multiple connectivity metrics that together provide a comprehensive view of landscape connectivity. In our case study, the three derived connectivity maps revealed several wild dog dispersal hotspots and corridors across the extent of our study area. Each map highlighted a different aspect of landscape connectivity, thus emphasizing their complementary nature. Overall, our case study demonstrates that a simulation-based approach offers a simple yet powerful alternative to traditional connectivity modeling techniques. It is therefore useful for a variety of applications in ecological, evolutionary, and conservation research. Graphical abstract

Reliable estimates of birth, death, emigration and immigration rates are fundamental to understanding and predicting the dynamics of wild populations and, consequently, inform appropriate management actions. However, when individuals disappear from a focal population, inference on their fate is often challenging. Here we used 30 years of individual‐based mark–recapture data from a population of free‐ranging African wild dogs Lycaon pictus in Botswana and a suite of individual, social and environmental predictors to investigate factors affecting the decision to emigrate from the pack. We subsequently used this information to assign an emigration probability to those individuals that were no longer sighted within their pack (i.e. missing individuals). Natal dispersal (i.e. emigration from the natal pack) showed seasonal patterns with female dispersal peaking prior to the mating season and male dispersal peaking at the beginning of the wet season. For both sexes, natal dispersal rate increased in the absence of unrelated individuals of the opposite sex in the pack. Male natal dispersal decreased with increasing number of pups in the pack and increased in larger packs. Female natal dispersal decreased with increasing number of pups in larger packs, but increased with increasing number of pups in smaller packs. Individuals of both sexes were less likely to exhibit secondary dispersal (i.e. emigration from a pack other than the natal pack) if they were dominant and if many pups were present in the pack. Our models predicted that 18% and 25% of missing females and males, respectively, had likely dispersed from the natal pack, rather than having died. A misclassification of this order of magnitude between dispersal and mortality can have far‐reaching consequences in the evaluation and prediction of population dynamics and persistence, and potentially mislead conservation actions. Our study showed that the decision to disperse is context‐dependent and that the effect of individual, social and environmental predictors differs between males and females and between natal and secondary dispersal related to different direct and indirect fitness consequences. Furthermore, we demonstrated how a thorough understanding of the proximate causes of dispersal can be used to assign a dispersal probability to missing individuals. Knowledge of causes of dispersal can then be used within an integrated framework to more reliably estimate mortality rates.

1. Conserving and managing large portions of land to connect wildlife reserves is an increasingly used strategy to maintain and restore connectivity among wildlife populations. Boundaries of such conservation areas are often determined based on expert opinion and socio-political constraints, yet the extent to which they match species' movement corridors is rarely examined. This is mainly due to a lack of data, particularly on wide-ranging movement behaviour such as dispersal.Nevertheless, empirically assessing the adequacy of protected areas is key for the implementation of targeted management actions and efficient use of limited conservation funds. Between 2011 and 2019, we collected high-resolution GPS data on 16 dispersingAfrican wild dog Lycaon pictus coalitions from a free-ranging population in the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA-TFCA). Spanning five countries and 520,000 km 2 , the KAZA-TFCA is the world's largest transboundary conservation area and a prime example for international conservation efforts. We used integrated step selection analysis to estimate habitat selection of dispersers and to create a permeability surface for the KAZA-TFCA. We compared landscape permeability across different regions within the KAZA-TFCA as well as outside its boundaries. Lastly, we calculated least-cost paths and corridors to verify that major movement routes were adequately encompassed within the KAZA-TFCA.3. Permeability within the boundaries of the KAZA-TFCA was more than double compared to areas outside it. Furthermore, we observed a fivefold permeability difference among the five KAZA-TFCA countries. We also showed that major movement corridors of wild dogs ran within the KAZA-TFCA, although some minor routes remained formally unprotected. 4. Differences in permeability were mainly related to different degrees of human activities across regions, and to the presence or absence of rivers, swamps and open water. The relationship between permeability and other landscape features was less pronounced. Synthesis and applications.In this study, we showed how pertinent dispersal data of a highly mobile species can be used to empirically evaluate the adequacy of