No abstract

This study investigates the potential impacts of tari൵elimination under the European Union - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) on Vietnam’s imports of dairy products from the European Union market. The SMART model, which is a simulation tool under the WITS, is employed with support data from TrendEconomy and Trade Map Database, UNCTAD’s TRAINS, WTO’s IDB (Integrated Data Base), and Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance. The study examines two scenarios of Vietnam’s tari൵reduction commitments under the EVFTA and the big picture vVietnam’s import value by product line and by European Union (EU) nations would increase insigni¿cantly as the trade creation e൵ect dominates the trade diversion. Additionally, the results indicate insigni¿cant welfare gain for the consumers and potential revenue loss for the government. The study provides insights for Vietnam’s dairy industry and policymakersto fully grasp the possible bene¿ts and losses under the EVFTAand implications for decision-making.