A target function has been developed for solving the problem of increasing the carrying capacity of loaded lines by organizing the motion of connected (double) trains on an ongoing basis, providing for the minimization of investment and operating costs. Conditions of constant circulation of connected trains on the Skovorodino—Smolyaninovo line section of the Trans-Siberian Railway, where the prospective freight flows exceed the available carrying capacity, are considered. All solutions are designed especially for this section. It is taken into account that the main investments for the implementation of the new method are related to the development of stations for working with connected trains, as well as to strengthening the power supply system for driving connected trains of double mass. Additional operating costs are determined by the need to perform various technological operations with connected trains. Estimated number of connected trains Nрасч has been established to ensure the required long-term carrying capacity. In order to save costs, the value of N расч is minimized on the basis of comparing the values of the maximum possible number of connected as well as single trains with the required carrying capacity on different sections of the line. The article considers methodology for the placement of stations for connecting/disconnecting trains, maximally combined with stations for changing locomotive crews, which provides savings in investment and operating costs. The optimal one was chosen from three possible options of such stations placement. Two schematic diagrams of stations for connecting/disconnecting trains are considered — with sequential and parallel execution of operations. It is shown that the minimization of costs is ensured by the sequential (flow) execution of these operations. In order to save investments, the development of a technical design for the implementation of a new method should provide the possibility of using auxiliary stations for connecting/disconnecting trains and changing locomotive crews of auxiliary stations with more favorable topographic conditions and the location of the station buildings for its development. Specific proposals on this issue are given for the considered line section of the Trans-Siberian Railway. Taking into account the current provisions, a method has been developed for calculating the operating fleet of locomotives handling connected trains, the size of which is minimized. Organization of the driving of connected trains on an ongoing basis ensures the effective development of the prospective freight traffic.

The paper considers conditions and methods for developing a strategic forecast for the technical and economic state of the worldwide and Russian railway transport for a period of 30-50 years or more. The analysis was made on changes in the state of infrastructure, rolling stock, organization of train traffic and shunting work, nature of the management of the transportation process from 1825 to the present. It is established that many quantitative and qualitative indicators of its technical and technological state have improved during this period many times and by orders of magnitude. This allowed the railway transport to ensure a high level of competitiveness in the transport system of the world, including our country, despite the emergence of all new modes of transport. At the same time, some such indicators are now close to the maximum possible and will not be able to grow rapidly in the future. It is accepted that in the development of strategic fore-casts of the technical and technological state of complex (large) production systems, it is necessary to determine the most important parameters, which in the long term can be improved many times substantially, which in the complex system under consideration will achieve a significant reduction in costs, and even increase their competitiveness. The main trends in the development of railways for a strategic long-term period are determined, taking into account the support of the development of its technical and technological state for the achievements of fundamental and branch science. These trends take into account both known solutions, for example, HS operation and new solutions. The implementation of the proposals will allow the railways to achieve a reduction in unit costs (per unit of transport output), preserve and increase their competitiveness in the constantly developing transport market.

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Аннотация. В настоящее время нормирование и учет показателей выполнения расписаний пассажирских и пригородных поездов для железных дорог и сети в целом осуществляется по принципу «от достигнутого уровня». Разработана методика расчета показателей на основе объективных условий организации эксплуатационной работы на каждой железной дороге. Обобщенный показатель, характеризующий объективные условия, авторы определяют на основе анализа комплекса факторов, к которым относятся: загрузка инфраструктуры железной дороги поездным движением; техникотехнологическое состояние инфраструктуры и подвижного состава; риски, связанные с возможной задержкой поездов в период предоставления «окон» для ремонта и реконструкции устройств инфраструктуры; число остановок пассажирских поездов; климатические условия; технологическая дисциплина выполнения графика движения (принимается одинаковой для всех железных дорог); риски нарушения расписаний на линиях со сгущенным поездопотоком. Предложены зависимости для определения численных значений факторов. С учетом весовых коэффициентов каждого фактора определяются оценочные индексы объективных условий эксплуатационной работы каждой железной дороги для пассажирского и пригородного движения. Сетевое задание по уровню выполнения расписаний распределяется по железным дорогам пропорционально значениям их оценочных индексов. Переход к предложенной системе нормирования и учета показателей выполнения расписаний будет способствовать повышению качества выполнения графика движения поездов, обеспечению положительного имиджа ОАО «РЖД» в области пассажирских перевозок. Использование методики определения целевых показателей расписаний пассажирских и пригородных поездов обеспечивает учет реальных условий выполнения перевозочного процесса на каждой железной дороге на стадии планирования и позволяет объективно оценивать качество организации эксплуатационной работы по итогам выполнения плановых показателей. Ключевые слова: расписание пассажирских и пригородных поездов; уровень выполнения; объективные условия эксплуатационной работы; влияющие факторы; весовые коэффициенты; оценочные индексы железных дорог