Are tundra ecosystems currently a carbon source or sink? What is the future trajectory of tundra carbon fluxes in response to climate change? These questions are of global importance because of the vast quantities of organic carbon stored in permafrost soils. In this meta-analysis, we compile 40 years of CO 2 flux observations from 54 studies spanning 32 sites across northern high latitudes. Using time-series analysis, we investigated if seasonal or annual CO 2 fluxes have changed over time, and whether spatial differences in mean annual temperature could help explain temporal changes in CO 2 flux. Growing season net CO 2 uptake has definitely increased since the 1990s; the data also suggest (albeit less definitively) an increase in winter CO 2 emissions, especially in the last decade. In spite of the uncertainty in the winter trend, we estimate that tundra sites were annual CO 2 sources from the mid-1980s until the 2000s, and data from the last 7 years show that tundra continue to emit CO 2 annually. CO 2 emissions exceed CO 2 uptake across the range of temperatures that occur in the tundra biome. Taken together, these data suggest that despite increases in growing season uptake, tundra ecosystems are currently CO 2 sources on an annual basis.

[1] Arctic warming has led to permafrost degradation and ground subsidence, created as a result of ground ice melting. Frozen soil organic matter that thaws can increase carbon (C) emissions to the atmosphere, but this can be offset in part by increases in plant growth. The balance of plant and microbial processes, and how this balance changes through time, determines how permafrost ecosystems influence future climate change via the C cycle. This study addressed this question both on short (interannual) and longer (decadal) time periods by measuring C fluxes over a seven-year period at three sites representing a gradient of time since permafrost thaw. All three sites were upland tundra ecosystems located in Interior Alaska but differed in the extent of permafrost thaw and ground subsidence. Results showed an increasing growing season (May -September) trend in gross primary productivity (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), and annual NEE at all sites over the seven year study period from 2004 to 2010, but no change in annual and growing season ecosystem respiration (R eco ). These trends appeared to most closely follow increases in the depth to permafrost that occurred over the same time period. During the seven-year period, sites with more permafrost degradation had significantly greater GPP compared to where degradation was least, but also greater growing season R eco . Adding in winter R eco decreased, in part, the summer C sink and left only the site with the most permafrost degradation C neutral, with the other sites still C sinks. Annual C balance was strongly dependent on winter R eco , which, compared to the growing season, was relatively data-poor due to extreme environmental conditions. As a result, we cannot yet conclude whether the increased NEE in the growing season is truly sustained on an annual basis. If it turns out that winter measurements shown here are an underestimate, we may indeed find these systems are already losing net C to the atmosphere.

(Acquisition) Collected for University of Florida's Institutional Repository by the UFIR Self-Submittal tool. Submitted by Michelle Mack.(Publication Status) Published(Funding) Funding for this research was provided by NASA Ecosystems and Carbon Cycle Grant NNX08AG13G, NOAA Global Carbon Cycle grant NA080AR4310526 and the Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research Site program funded by NSF DEB-0620579 and USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, grant PNW01-JV11261952-231

[1] The future carbon balance of high-latitude ecosystems is dependent on the sensitivity of biological processes (photosynthesis and respiration) to the physical changes occurring with permafrost thaw. Predicting C exchange in these ecosystems is difficult because the thawing of permafrost is a heterogeneous process that creates a complex landscape. We measured net ecosystem exchange of C using eddy covariance (EC) in a tundra landscape visibly undergoing thaw during two 6 month campaigns in 2008 and 2009. We developed a spatially explicit quantitative metric of permafrost thaw based on variation in microtopography and incorporated it into an EC carbon flux estimate using a generalized additive model (GAM). This model allowed us to make predictions about C exchange for the landscape as a whole and for specific landscape patches throughout the continuum of permafrost thaw and ground subsidence. During June through November 2008, the GAM predicted that the landscape on average took up 337.1 g C m À2 via photosynthesis and released 289.5 g C m À2 via respiration, resulting in a net C gain of 47.5 g C m À2 by the tundra ecosystem. During April through October 2009, the landscape on average took up 498.7 g C m À2 and released 410.3 g C m À2 , resulting in a net C gain of 87.8 g C m À2 . On average, between the years, areas with the highest permafrost thaw and ground subsidence photosynthesized 17.7% more and respired 3.3% more C than the average landscape. Areas with the least thaw and subsidence photosynthesized 15% less and respired 5.1% less than the landscape on average. By incorporating spatial variation into the EC C estimate, we were able to estimate the C balance of a heterogeneous landscape and determine the collective effect of permafrost thaw on the plant and soil processes that drive ecosystem C flux. In these study years, permafrost thaw appeared to increase the amplitude of the C cycle by stimulating both C release and sequestration, while the ecosystem remained a C sink at the landscape scale.Citation: Belshe, E. F., E. A. G. Schuur, B. M. Bolker, and R. Bracho (2012), Incorporating spatial heterogeneity created by permafrost thaw into a landscape carbon estimate,

No abstract