Snow depth observations and modeled snow density can be combined to calculate snow water equivalent (SWE). In this approach, SWE uncertainty is dominated by snow density uncertainty, which depends on meteorological data quality and process representation (e.g., compaction) in models. We test whether assimilating snow depth observations with the particle filter can improve modeled snow density, thus improving SWE estimated from intermittent depth observations. We model snowpack at Mammoth Mountain (California) over water years 2013-2016, assuming monthly snow depth data (e.g., sampling intervals relevant to lidar or manual surveys) for assimilation, and validate against observed SWE and density. The particle filter reduced density and SWE root-mean-square error by 27% and 28% relative to open loop simulations when using high-quality, point location forcing. Assimilation gains were greater (35% and 51% reduction in density and SWE root-mean-square error) when using coarse-resolution North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 meteorology. Ensembles created with both meteorological and compaction perturbations led to the greatest model improvements. Because modeled depth and density were both generally lower than observations, assimilation favored particles with higher precipitation and thus more overburden compaction. This moved depth and density (therefore SWE) closer to observations. In contrast, ensemble generation that varied only compaction parameters degraded performance. These results were supported by synthetic experiments with prescribed error sources. Thus, assimilation of snow depth data from lidar or other techniques can likely improve snow density and SWE derived at the basin scale. However, supplementary in situ observations are valuable to identify primary error sources in simulated snow depth and density.

Snow depth observations can be leveraged with data assimilation (DA) to improve estimation of snow density and snow water equivalent (SWE). A key consideration for mission and campaign design is how snow depth retrieval characteristics (including observation timing/frequency and sampling error) influence SWE accuracy and uncertainty in a DA framework. To quantify these effects, we implement a particle filter (PF) assimilation technique to assimilate depth and validate this approach against observed snow density and SWE at 49 snow telemetry sites across 9 years. We sample from continuous in situ snow depth records to test a range of measurement timing and sampling error scenarios representative of remote sensing capabilities. Assimilation reduces density bias by over 40% and SWE bias by over 70% across climate zones and in both wet and dry years. There is little incremental benefit to SWE accuracy when assimilating more than one depth observation near peak accumulation. SWE estimates are less sensitive to observation timing than sampling error. Alternatively, more frequent depth observations improve melt-out date timing and reduce SWE uncertainty, a key consideration when evaluating the operational utility of DA. In matching depth observations, the PF mostly acts to increase model precipitation inputs, while not systematically shifting other parameter values or forcings across the climate zones represented with the study sites. This demonstrates that precipitation is the largest source of model error. With DA, density errors are still nontrivial (above 10%), illuminating the need for further improvements to modeled density to estimate SWE within specified error limits. Plain Language SummaryThe amount of water stored in seasonal snowpack (snow water equivalent or "SWE") is an important variable for water management yet is currently difficult to measure in mountainous areas. One technique is to measure snow depth from airborne or satellite platforms and use that depth to guide a model that simulates snow density and SWE with a technique called data assimilation. We show that assimilation reduces errors in modeled SWE relative to control model runs, even when using a single depth observation to guide the model. However, more depth observations are helpful to reduce model uncertainty.

Intermittent snow depth observations can be leveraged with data assimilation (DA) to improve model estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) at the point scale. A key consideration for scaling assimilation to the basin scale is its performance at forested locations—where canopy‐snow interactions affect snow accumulation and melt, yet are difficult to model and parameterize. We implement a particle filter (PF) technique to assimilate intermittent snow depth observations into the Flexible Snow Model, and validate model outputs against snow density and SWE measurements across adjacent forest and open sites, at two locations with different climates and forest structures. Assimilation reduces snow depth error by 70%–90%, density error by 5%–30%, and SWE error by 50%–70% at forest locations (relative to controls). The PF simulates the seasonal evolution of the snowpack under forest canopy, including where interception losses decrease SWE in the forest during accumulation, and shading reduces melt during the ablation season (relative to open sites). Model outputs are sensitive to canopy‐related parameters, but DA reduces the range in snow depth and SWE estimates resulting from variations or uncertainties in these parameters by over 50%. These results demonstrate that the importance of accurately measuring, estimating, or calibrating canopy‐related parameters is reduced when snow depth observations are assimilated. Finally, we assimilate remotely sensed snow depth observations at 50 m resolution across the East River Basin, Colorado (1,000 km2). Across elevations, the PF increases estimated precipitation at forested sites by ∼15% relative to open sites, likely compensating for excessive sublimation of intercepted snow.

Understanding snow-forest interactions is critical for characterizing and predicting snowpack, across basins and at sites worldwide (Rutter et al., 2009). Field observations are essential for improving our process knowledge and for assessing model predictions of snow water equivalent (SWE) and other states (