Modelling cultural ecosystem services is challenging as they often involve subjective and intangible concepts. As a consequence they have been neglected in ecosystem service studies, something that needs remedying if environmental decision making is to be truly holistic. We suggest Bayesian Networks (BNs) have a number of qualities that may make them well-suited for dealing with cultural services. For example, they define relationships between variables probabilistically, enabling conceptual and physical variables to be linked, and therefore the numerical representation of stakeholder opinions. We assess whether BNs are a good method for modelling cultural services by building one collaboratively with canoeists to predict how the subjective concepts of fun and danger are impacted on by weir modification. The BN successfully captured the relationships between the variables, with model output being broadly consistent with verbal descriptions by the canoeists. There were however a number of discrepancies indicating imperfect knowledge capture. This is likely due to the structure of the network and the abstract and laborious nature of the probability elicitation stage. New techniques should be developed to increase the intuitiveness and efficiency of probability elicitation. The limitations we identified with BNs are avoided if their structure can be kept simple, and it is in such circumstances that BNs can offer a good method for modelling cultural ecosystem services.
a b s t r a c t(1) The potential for catchment-scale connectivity modelling to help plan the restoration of connectivity in fragmented river systems is not yet well understood. In the present study the importance of two interrelated aspects of such modelling in determining predictions of connectivity are explored: (1) uncertainty in the passability of partial barriers (such as fish passes) and how the passabilities of series of partial barriers combine, and (2) temporal variation in connectivity due to flow. (2) Connectivity for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) and European perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) are modelled under alternative restoration strategies in the heavily impounded Don Catchment UK using two different methods for simulating the combined passability of series of partial barriers. Catchment-scale hydraulic and connectivity modelling were integrated using a novel method to account for the effect of flow on connectivity, achieved by consideration of flow-fish pass efficiency relationships and the treatment of gaps between habitat patches as partial barrier.(3) Modelled connectivity is very sensitive to uncertainty in barrier passability and the method used to simulate the combined passability of series of partial barriers. Flow also has a strong and complex effect on connectivity, with predicted temporal patterns being particularly dependent on how the combined impact of series of barriers is modelled. The sensitivity of the modelling constrains its capacity to predict the outcome of alternative connectivity restoration strategies. Nevertheless it does serve as a tool to think critically about connectivity restoration. If applied thoughtfully in full awareness of its limitations it can still be used assist in the planning and appraisal of alternative restoration options. (4) The modelling also provides a number of important practical insights. It shows that series of fish passes may be ineffective unless they operate at very high efficiencies. Small changes to flow-fish pass efficiency relationships can have a large effect on temporal patterns in connectivity. Overall fish pass efficiency is comprised of attraction and passage efficiencies which may differ in the extent to which they are determined by random processes. This likely has significant implications for the nature of the combined passability of series of fish passes.
This article reports on a survey of clinical psychology training courses that measured levels of training in sex and sexuality. Findings suggest there is inconsistent provision in terms of quantity and breadth of coverage.
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