It is important to anticipate potential maximum ice loads to ensure the structural stability of dams in cold climates. Finite element modeling (FEM) can provide some insights into process mechanisms. Four important ice-loading events on dams are presented and simulated. The measured loads were caused by the thermal expansion of ice together with intermediate water level fluctuations. Only the thermal expansion is modeled by the FEM, but the impact of water level fluctuations can increase lateral confinement that increases the predicted load by 36% to 106%, particularly when the cover contains mostly columnar ice. It is demonstrated that the presence of snow ice in the cover can decrease the predicted load by 35% to 53%. The study also demonstrates how initial stresses in the ice can affect the ultimate load and show that the very-difficult-to-manage delayed-elastic strain term need not be included in the material model where preliminary results suffice.

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