No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

A quantitative risk characterization of Listeria monocytogenes in various ready-to-eat (RTE) food categories (heat-treated meat; smoked and gravad fish; and soft and semi-soft cheeses) in the European Union (EU) was performed; starting from the retail stage. For prevalence and concentration, data from the EU-wide baseline survey was complemented with EU monitoring data and data from other sources. Food serving size and the number of servings per year were estimated from the European food consumption database. Demographical data from Eurostat were also used. Growth of L. monocytogenes considering interaction with lactic acid bacteria was modelled from retail to consumption using temperature-time profiles during transport and storage. This information was combined with the Pouillot dose-response models to estimate the number of listeriosis cases per 10 6 servings as well as the annual number of listeriosis cases in the EU associated with the consumption of the RTE foods. The total number of cases was estimated as 2,318 (95 confidence interval (CI): 1,450-3,612). Cooked meat and sausage presented most cases (median of 863 and 541, respectively). Sliced pâté packaged in normal atmosphere presented the highest listeriosis risk per million servings. With respect to the estimation of the total number of cases per population group, considering each food subcategory separately, the higher risk population group corresponded to elderly, followed, in most cases, by pregnant and healthy, with the exceptions of cooked meat and hot smoked fish in which pregnant presented higher risk than elderly. In the light of results, it seems necessary that educative programs and specific recommendations are specially oriented the most susceptible population groups so as to mitigate the risk. Uncertainty sources for some variables such as initial MAY prevalence should be further elucidated as well as variability in Listeria growth when types of product and populations are compared.

Foodborne diseases constitute a major concern in societies, and their causes are aimed to be identified and minimized. Only in the last few years, this is encouraged by the application of risk assessment, management, and communication. This work presents a probabilistic quantitative microbiological risk assessment and management of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat lettuce salads in Spain. For risk assessment, a guideline provided by Codex Alimentarius was followed. Food chain was modeled from processing of raw material at the factory up to consumption. Different assumptions were made to describe the variables of the model by probability distributions or mathematical models. Monte Carlo simulations of the model were run to estimate the number of cases in low-risk and high-risk populations. Although results deviated from the number of cases observed in Spain, given an ideal situation of 100% compliance of the microbiological criterion ≤100 cfu/g throughout the shelf-life of the product, the resulting number of cases was near the real situation. From the 4 risk management measures simulated, the injection of a mixture of gases into packages at manufacture (CO 2 about 5.5%, O 2 about 3%, and N 2 for the balance) was the most effective in reducing the number of cases, followed by 4 d of storage at home and prevention of high-risk consumers from consumption of ready-to-eat lettuce salads. More research and cooperation between different stakeholder organizations are needed in order to progressively improve the model. With this work, a breakthrough has been made with regards to risk assessment and management procedures and implementation.