In this paper we address the subject of Keynes as a speculator. We look first at the primary sources of information, which are in the form of unpublished letters and broker’s statements. Secondly, we look at the theory Keynes sparingly presented in his writings, but which nevertheless is grounded on his first-hand knowledge of speculative behavior. Thirdly, we examine the focus on speculation in commodities, which had great weight in his portfolio, and have chosen a particular commodity -wheat- for our investigation. In particular, we examine some of Keynes’s dealings in wheat futures with the aim of shedding light on the underlying investment strategy.

While the recent literature has shown an increasing interest in Keynes’s investment activity, specific analysis of his own (rather than for King’s College) investments in US securities is still lacking. Keynes began to trade in the US stock market on a regular basis in late 1931, when it was still very hard to tell when full recovery could be expected. In 1930, he had publicly rebutted the view of his business partner Oswald Falk, whose advice to investors was to abandonBritish manufacture and buy American shares. Until 1933, Keynes’s outlook on the USA remained negative. Only in February 1934 did Keynes become optimistic about the USA on account of his growing confidence in the New Deal, which however was short-lived. In 1937 he was shaken by the US recession and disillusioned by Roosevelt’s fiscal policies and reforms. In this paperwefirst trace the evolution ofKeynes’s opinions on theUS economy and his ‘‘view’’ on the US stock market. There are direct references to Wall Street and specific examples relating to its working that are contained, in particular, in Chapter 12 of the General Theory. We then go on to follow the timeline of his investments by sectors,\ud focusing on the companies that Keynes held onto for a longer period, looking for a pattern in his investment behaviour in the USmarket between 1931 and 1939, before the War changed the personal and institutional circumstances of his investment activity.We offer also a comparison of Keynes’s own portfolio with his investments on behalf of King’s (as reconstructed by Chambers and Kabiri, Bus Hist Rev 90(Summer):301–328, 2016) and conclude with an assessment of the influence of his theoretical approach on his investment activity

to provide 'a middle course between unfettered competition under laissez-faire conditions and planned controls which try to freeze commerce into a fixed mould'. (J.M. Keynes, CWK XXVI: 111) to curb irresponsible movements of the price rather than to establish stability within a narrow range of fluctuations. (R.F. Kahn, RFK 2/12/2/80) 1.While it is known that Keynes was a speculator who traded on behalf of himself, his friends and his college, perhaps it is less appreciated that his theoretical writings concerning speculative behaviour are grounded on his first-hand experience as an investor (in particular, in commodity futures, which had great weight in his portfolio) and that some of his policy recommendations -the buffer-stocks scheme in particular -stem from his experience in playing on those markets (see Kregel 2010).If we look at Keynes's investment in practice, we see that a huge quota of Keynes's investment was in agricultural commodities, like wheat and maize (see Keynes 1971-1989

In the first quarter of the twentieth century, options began to be widely employed in the main financial centres in Europe and the USA for trading in spot and futures markets. From 1921 onward, Keynes embarked upon investment in these derivatives mainly-but not exclusively-in the commodity markets, showing a true fascination for this method of speculation. This type of financial investment he pursued mainly in the 1920s, with only a few operations undertaken during the 1930s. The option markets in which Keynes traded were metals-in particular copper, lead, spelter and, especially, tin. Besides metals, Keynes dealt in options also in other commodity markets, such as rubber and linseed oil, and sparingly in ordinary stocks and government securities. In this paper we offer a reconstruction of Keynes's speculative activity in commodity options, drawing on the archival material kept in the Keynes Papers held at King's College, Cambridge. This reconstruction is, to the best of our knowledge, entirely new to the literature and aims to provide an analysis of this particular aspect of Keynes's investment behaviour, investigating his capacity to predict market trends and offering a preliminary assessment of his performance.

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