No abstract

The combined effect of changing climate and changing nutrient loads from land due to altered land use, sewage water treatment and emissions was studied using a 3-dimensional highresolution coupled physical-biogeochemical model for the Baltic Sea. Results suggest that global warming causes increased water temperatures and reduced sea ice cover, combined (eventually) with increased winter mean wind speeds and increased river runoff. The projected hydrographic changes could therefore have significant effects on the marine ecosystem. These changes may compete with nutrient load reductions -presently under discussion -that aim to improve the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. Targets that may be sufficient in the present climate might fail under future climate conditions. Using the model, we investigated 4 climate change scenarios and 3 nutrient load scenarios, ranging from a pessimistic 'business as usual' to the 'most optimistic' case (including the Baltic Sea Action Plan, BSAP). In addition, using cause-and-effect studies, we analyzed changing simulated nutrient cycles, oxygen concentrations, and phytoplankton concentrations. As model results for the northern part of the Baltic (Bothnian Bay and Bothnian Sea) are not reliable, we focus the analysis on the Baltic proper, including the Arkona, Bornholm and Gotland basins. The degree of nutrient reduction in nutrient-load reduction scenarios is likely to differ under a future climate, but actions of the BSAP will reduce phytoplankton concentrations also in the future climate. However, the sensitivity of non-linear responses to climate change depends on processes that are not well understood, with current understanding limited by modelling uncertainties (e.g. in the long-term functioning of Baltic Sea sediments as sources and sinks of nutrients).

No abstract

No abstract

A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models is suggested to produce a eutrophication assessment. Using threshold values and methodology from the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM), four models are combined to assess eutrophication for the Baltic and North Seas for the year 2006. The assessment indicates that the entire southeastern part of the North Sea, the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, and the Gulf of Riga as well as parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The Bothnian Bay and parts of the Baltic proper, the Bornholm Basin, and the Arkona Basin are classified as potential problem areas. This method is a useful tool for the classification of eutrophication; however, the results depend on the threshold values, and further work is needed within both OSPAR and HELCOM to harmonize these values.