Measurements of active layer thickness (ALT) are typically taken at the end of summer, a time synonymous with maximum thaw depth. By definition, the active layer is the layer above permafrost that freezes and thaws annually. This study, conducted in peatlands of subarctic Canada, in the zone of thawing discontinuous permafrost, demonstrates that the entire thickness of ground atop permafrost does not always refreeze over winter. In these instances, a talik exists between the permafrost and active layer, and ALT must therefore be measured by the depth of refreeze at the end of winter. As talik thickness increases at the expense of the underlying permafrost, ALT is shown to simultaneously decrease. This suggests that the active layer has a maximum thickness that is controlled by the amount of energy lost from the ground to the atmosphere during winter. The taliks documented in this study are relatively thin (<2 m) and exist on forested peat plateaus. The presence of taliks greatly affects the stability of the underlying permafrost. Vertical permafrost thaw was found to be significantly greater in areas with taliks (0.07 m year−1) than without (0.01 m year−1). Furthermore, the spatial distribution of areas with taliks increased between 2011 and 2015 from 20% to 48%, a phenomenon likely caused by an anomalously large ground heat flux input in 2012. Rapid talik development and accelerated permafrost thaw indicates that permafrost loss may exhibit a nonlinear response to warming temperatures. Documentation of refreeze depths and talik development is needed across the circumpolar north.

Taliks (perennially thawed soil in a permafrost environment) are generally found beneath water bodies or wetlands, and their development and evolution in other environments is poorly documented. Sustained isolated taliks between seasonally frozen surface soils and permafrost have been observed at the Scotty Creek Research Station in the discontinuous permafrost region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. These taliks have been expanding both vertically and laterally over the past decade of monitoring. The main controls on expansion are thought to be (1) the availability of energy, determined by incoming radiation and advective heat flux, (2) the ability to transfer this energy to the freezing/thawing front, determined by the thermal conductivity (soil properties and moisture content), and (3) the presence and thickness of the snowpack. These controls are investigated using data collected in the field to inform a 1‐D coupled thermodynamic freeze‐thaw and unsaturated flow model. The model was successfully used to represent observed thaw rates in different parts of the landscape. It is found that high soil moisture, deeper snowpacks, and warmer or faster advective flow rates all contribute to accelerated talik growth and subsequent permafrost degradation. Simulations show that slight perturbations of available energy or soil properties, such as an increase in average surface temperature of 0.5°C or a 1‐cm change in snow water equivalent, can lead to talik formation, highlighting the vulnerability of this landscape to changes in climate or land cover.

Abstract. Scotty Creek, Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, has been the focus of hydrological research for nearly three decades. Over this period, field and modelling studies have generated new insights into the thermal and physical mechanisms governing the flux and storage of water in the wetland-dominated regions of discontinuous permafrost that characterises much of the Canadian and circumpolar subarctic. Research at Scotty Creek has coincided with a period of unprecedented climate warming, permafrost thaw, and resulting land cover transformations including the expansion of wetland areas and loss of forests. This paper (1) synthesises field and modelling studies at Scotty Creek, (2) highlights the key insights of these studies on the major water flux and storage processes operating within and between the major land cover types, and (3) provides insights into the rate and pattern of the permafrost-thaw-induced land cover change and how such changes will affect the hydrology and water resources of the study region.

Abstract. The discontinuous permafrost zone is undergoing rapid transformation as a result of unprecedented permafrost thaw brought on by circumpolar climate warming. Rapid warming over recent decades has significantly decreased the area underlain by permafrost in peatland complexes. It has catalysed extensive landscape transitions in the Taiga Plains of northwestern Canada, transforming forest-dominated landscapes to those that are wetland dominated. However, the advanced stages of this landscape transition, and the hydrological and thermal mechanisms and feedbacks governing these environments, are unclear. This study explores the current trajectory of land cover change across a 300 000 km2 region of northwestern Canada's discontinuous permafrost zone by presenting a north–south space-for-time substitution that capitalizes on the region's 600 km latitudinal span. We combine extensive geomatics data across the Taiga Plains with ground-based hydrometeorological measurements collected in the Scotty Creek basin, Northwest Territories, Canada, which is located in the medial latitudes of the Taiga Plains and is undergoing rapid landscape change. These data are used to inform a new conceptual framework of landscape evolution that accounts for the observed patterns of permafrost thaw-induced land cover change and provides a basis for predicting future changes. Permafrost thaw-induced changes in hydrology promote partial drainage and drying of collapse scar wetlands, leading to areas of afforestation forming treed wetlands without underlying permafrost. Across the north–south latitudinal gradient spanning the Taiga Plains, relatively undisturbed forested plateau–wetland complexes dominate the region's higher latitudes, forest–wetland patchwork are most prevalent at the medial latitudes, and forested peatlands are increasingly present across lower latitudes. This trend reflects the progression of wetland transition occurring locally in the plateau–wetland complexes of the Scotty Creek basin and informs our understanding of the anticipated trajectory of change in the discontinuous permafrost zone.