We assess the effects of the dramatic rise in agricultural commodity prices during 2007-2008 on income dynamics and poverty among rural households in Bangladesh. A unique panel data set allows us to put the effects of recent events in the context of long-run trends in income and poverty. We use data from a nationally representative longitudinal survey of rural households in ) analysed income dynamics and poverty incidence for the first three waves, finding a declining trend in both the incidence and severity of poverty, aided in particular by human capital development and off-farm employment opportunities. We update and extend the analysis to include data collected in 2008, at the height of a spike in agricultural prices. We find that the price of a balanced food basket increased by more than 50% during 2000-2008, while household income rose only 15%. As a result the incidence and severity of rural poverty in Bangladesh sunk to pre-2000 levels during 2004-2008. Thus, the price spikes in 2007-2008 helped push an additional 13 million people into poverty in rural Bangladesh. Moreover, we find that the determinants of poverty have not been time-invariant. In particular, agricultural production, which had previously been associated with a higher incidence of poverty, served as a hedge against higher food prices during 2004-2008.JEL classifications: D13, O12, O13, Q02, Q12

In Mozambique, smallholder farmers commonly grow rice under rainfed systems with limited fertilizer application; thus, productivity remains very low. Moreover, the adoption rate of improved rice varieties is as low as 3 per cent, partly because these varieties usually require an irrigated environment with the use of fertilizer. Green Super Rice (GSR) varieties are expected to sustain high yield potential under severe stress conditions. This article used farm-level survey data collected in Mozambique to assess the benefits of the adoption of a GSR variety (Simão) on the yield and cost efficiency of smallholder rice producers. The econometric approach involves Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and a simultaneous equations model with Endogenous Switching Regression to account for observable and unobservable factors that affect adoption and outcome variables. The results indicate positive and significant benefits from adopting GSR on rice yield and cost-efficiency for adopters. These benefits are observed not only in irrigated environments where fertilizer is applied together with some more advanced farming practices (i.e. Gaza Province), but also in Nampula and Sofala Provinces, where farmers grow rice under rainfed conditions with no fertilizer application. Our findings suggest that GSR varieties have the potential to bring some positive changes in the development of rice production in Mozambique.

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