Aim The application of island biogeography theory in habitat fragmentation research assumes a simple relationship between species richness and fragment area. However, previous work has suggested that in some cases thresholds can be detected, at which the form of the island species-area relationship (ISAR) changes abruptly. Piecewise regression has been advocated as a suitable statistical technique to model such thresholds. Here we first provide a comparative analysis of piecewise regression models to determine the prevalence and type of thresholds in habitat island ISARs. Second, we evaluate piecewise regression as a method for locating thresholds in the ISAR, with particular emphasis on the implications of data transformation.Location World-wide.Methods Seventy-six habitat island datasets were sourced from the literature. An information theoretic approach was employed to compare linear regression ISAR models with piecewise regression models. The models were applied to untransformed (species-area), semi-log (species-log area) and log-log (log species-log area) data. Three types of piecewise regression models were evaluated: continuous, discontinuous and zero slope. Model performance was compared using the Akaike information criterion. We also examined the influence on model performance of taxon, number of habitat islands, and area of smallest island. ResultsLinear regression models performed best, although piecewise models were preferred in a number of cases. Cases in which no model was significant were most prevalent in untransformed space relative to the semi-log and loglog transformations. Piecewise fits were more prevalent in datasets with a larger numbers of islands.Main conclusions Data transformation is a key part of model selection and needs to be explicitly considered, especially in terms of drawing inferences from models. Piecewise models, even if selected as the favoured model in our analyses, were often ecologically unintelligible in relation to area alone. When detected, breakpoint values ranged over five orders of magnitude, although with one exception all were under 50 ha. Our findings highlight the limitations of using individual threshold values to inform conservation practice.

Invasive alien species (IAS) are one of the major drivers of change that can negatively affect biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services and human health; islands are particularly vulnerable to biological invasions. Horizon scanning can lead to Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (

The European protected-area network will cease to be efficient for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the Mediterranean region, if species are driven out of protected areas by climate warming. Yet, no empirical evidence of how climate change influences ecological communities in Mediterranean nature reserves really exists. Here, we examine long-term (1998–2011/2012) and short-term (2011–2012) changes in the butterfly fauna of Dadia National Park (Greece) by revisiting 21 and 18 transects in 2011 and 2012 respectively, that were initially surveyed in 1998. We evaluate the temperature trend for the study area for a 22-year-period (1990–2012) in which all three butterfly surveys are included. We also assess changes in community composition and species richness in butterfly communities using information on (a) species’ elevational distributions in Greece and (b) Community Temperature Index (calculated from the average temperature of species' geographical ranges in Europe, weighted by species' abundance per transect and year). Despite the protected status of Dadia NP and the subsequent stability of land use regimes, we found a marked change in butterfly community composition over a 13 year period, concomitant with an increase of annual average temperature of 0.95°C. Our analysis gave no evidence of significant year-to-year (2011–2012) variability in butterfly community composition, suggesting that the community composition change we recorded is likely the consequence of long-term environmental change, such as climate warming. We observe an increased abundance of low-elevation species whereas species mainly occurring at higher elevations in the region declined. The Community Temperature Index was found to increase in all habitats except agricultural areas. If equivalent changes occur in other protected areas and taxonomic groups across Mediterranean Europe, new conservation options and approaches for increasing species’ resilience may have to be devised.

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