Abstract:The paper describes a relative entropy procedure for imposing moment restrictions on simulated forecast distributions from a variety of models. Starting from an empirical forecast distribution for some variables of interest, the technique generates a new empirical distribution that satisfies a set of moment restrictions. The new distribution is chosen to be as close as possible to the original in the sense of minimizing the associated Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, or relative entropy. The authors illustrate the technique by using several examples that show how restrictions from other forecasts and from economic theory may be introduced into a model's forecasts.JEL classification: E44, C53

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The Bank Panic of 1907 was one of the most severe financial crises in the United States before the Great Depression. Although contemporaries realized that the panic in New York City was centered at trust companies, subsequent research has relied heavily on national bank data. Balance sheet data for trust companies and state banks as well as call reports of national banks indicate that the contraction of loans and deposits in New York City during the panic was confined to the trust companies.

Since the mid 1980s, an extensive emprical literature has examined the relationship between U.S. Fiscal deficits, exchange rates, and trade balances. We investigate two questions that continue to spark debate: do increased government deficits casue doller appreciation, and do fiscal deficits lead to higher trade deficits (the popular ‘twin deficit’ notion)? We examine these issues fusing a five‐variable VAR system, generating posterior probability bounds to assess significance. Our result provide some evidence that growing goverment deficits apperciate the dollar, and support the “twin deficit” notion that government deficits contrinute to trade deficits.