Forecasting the burden of COVID-19 has been impeded by limitations in data, with case reporting biased by testing practices, death counts lagging far behind infections, and hospital census reflecting time-varying patient access, admission criteria, and demographics. Here, we show that hospital admissions coupled with mobility data can reliably predict severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission rates and healthcare demand. Using a forecasting model that has guided mitigation policies in Austin, TX, we estimate that the local reproduction number had an initial 7-d average of 5.8 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.6 to 7.9) and reached a low of 0.65 (95% CrI: 0.52 to 0.77) after the summer 2020 surge. Estimated case detection rates ranged from 17.2% (95% CrI: 11.8 to 22.1%) at the outset to a high of 70% (95% CrI: 64 to 80%) in January 2021, and infection prevalence remained above 0.1% between April 2020 and March 1, 2021, peaking at 0.8% (0.7-0.9%) in early January 2021. As precautionary behaviors increased safety in public spaces, the relationship between mobility and transmission weakened. We estimate that mobility-associated transmission was 62% (95% CrI: 52 to 68%) lower in February 2021 compared to March 2020. In a retrospective comparison, the 95% CrIs of our 1, 2, and 3 wk ahead forecasts contained 93.6%, 89.9%, and 87.7% of reported data, respectively. Developed by a task force including scientists, public health officials, policy makers, and hospital executives, this model can reliably project COVID-19 healthcare needs in US cities.

The human skeletal form underlies our ability to walk on two legs, but unlike standing height, the genetic basis of limb lengths and skeletal proportions is less well understood. Here we applied a deep learning model to 31,221 whole body dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images from the UK Biobank (UKB) to extract 23 different image-derived phenotypes (IDPs) that include all long bone lengths as well as hip and shoulder width, which we analyzed while controlling for height. All skeletal proportions are highly heritable (~40-50%), and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of these traits identified 179 independent loci, of which 102 loci were not associated with height. These loci are enriched in genes regulating skeletal development as well as associated with rare human skeletal diseases and abnormal mouse skeletal phenotypes. Genetic correlation and genomic structural equation modeling indicated that limb proportions exhibited strong genetic sharing but were genetically independent of width and torso proportions. Phenotypic and polygenic risk score analyses identified specific associations between osteoarthritis (OA) of the hip and knee, the leading causes of adult disability in the United States, and skeletal proportions of the corresponding regions. We also found genomic evidence of evolutionary change in arm-to-leg and hip-width proportions in humans consistent with striking anatomical changes in these skeletal proportions in the hominin fossil record. In contrast to cardiovascular, auto-immune, metabolic, and other categories of traits, loci associated with these skeletal proportions are significantly enriched in human accelerated regions (HARs), and regulatory elements of genes differentially expressed through development between humans and the great apes. Taken together, our work validates the use of deep learning models on DXA images to identify novel and specific genetic variants affecting the human skeletal form and ties a major evolutionary facet of human anatomical change to pathogenesis.

Background Pandemic SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan, China on December 31, 2019. Twenty-one days later, the US identified its first case––a man who had traveled from Wuhan to the state of Washington. Recent studies in the Wuhan and Seattle metropolitan areas retrospectively tested samples taken from patients with COVID-like symptoms. In the Wuhan study, there were 4 SARS-CoV-2 positives and 7 influenza positives out of 26 adults outpatients who sought care for influenza-like-illness at two central hospitals prior to January 12, 2020. The Seattle study reported 25 SARS-CoV-2 positives and 442 influenza positives out of 2353 children and adults who reported acute respiratory illness prior to March 9, 2020. Here, we use these findings to extrapolate the early prevalence of symptomatic COVID-19 in Wuhan and Seattle. Methods For each city, we estimate the ratio of COVID-19 to influenza infections from the retrospective testing data and estimate the age-specific prevalence of influenza from surveillance reports during the same time period. Combining these, we approximate the total number of symptomatic COVID-19 infections. Findings In Wuhan, there were an estimated 1386 [95% CrI: 420-3793] symptomatic cases over 30 of COVID-19 between December 30, 2019 and January 12, 2020. In Seattle, we estimate that 2268 [95% CrI: 498, 6069] children under 18 and 4367 [95% CrI: 2776, 6526] adults were symptomatically infected between February 24 and March 9, 2020. We also find that the initial pandemic wave in Wuhan likely originated with a single infected case who developed symptoms sometime between October 26 and December 13, 2019; in Seattle, the seeding likely occurred between December 25, 2019 and January 15, 2020. Interpretation The spread of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Seattle was far more extensive than initially reported. The virus likely spread for months in Wuhan before the lockdown. Given that COVID-19 appears to be overwhelmingly mild in children, our high estimate for symptomatic pediatric cases in Seattle suggests that there may have been thousands more mild cases at the time.

The human skeletal form underlies bipedalism, but the genetic basis of skeletal proportions (SPs) is not well characterized. We applied deep-learning models to 31,221 x-rays from the UK Biobank to extract a comprehensive set of SPs, which were associated with 145 independent loci genome-wide. Structural equation modeling suggested that limb proportions exhibited strong genetic sharing but were independent of width and torso proportions. Polygenic score analysis identified specific associations between osteoarthritis and hip and knee SPs. In contrast to other traits, SP loci were enriched in human accelerated regions and in regulatory elements of genes that are differentially expressed between humans and great apes. Combined, our work identifies specific genetic variants that affect the skeletal form and ties a major evolutionary facet of human anatomical change to pathogenesis.

For each US county, we calculated the probability of an ongoing COVID-19 epidemic that may not yet be apparent. Based on confirmed cases as of April 15, 2020, COVID-19 is likely spreading in 86% of counties containing 97% of US population. Proactive measures before two cases are confirmed are prudent.