The Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) is a powerful method for comparing disease progression using single assessment data. The Global MSSS can be used as a reference table for future disability comparisons. While useful for comparing groups of patients, disease fluctuation precludes its use as a predictor of future disability in an individual.

It is well documented that disability accumulation in multiple sclerosis is correlated with axonal injury and that the extent of axonal injury is correlated with the degree of inflammation. However, the interdependence between focal inflammation, diffuse inflammation and neurodegeneration, and their relative contribution to clinical deficits, remains ambiguous. A hypothesis might be that early focal inflammation could be the pivotal event from which all else follows, suggesting the consideration of multiple sclerosis as a two-stage disease. This prompted us to define two phases in the disease course of multiple sclerosis by using two scores on the Kurtzke Disability Status Scale as benchmarks of disability accumulation: an early phase, ‘Phase 1’, from multiple sclerosis clinical onset to irreversible Disability Status Scale 3 and a late phase, ‘Phase 2’, from irreversible Disability Status Scale 3 to irreversible Disability Status Scale 6. Outcome was assessed through five parameters: Phase 1 duration, age at Disability Status Scale 3, time to Disability Status Scale 6 from multiple sclerosis onset, Phase 2 duration and age at Disability Status Scale 6. The first three were calculated among all patients, while the last two were computed only among patients who had reached Disability Status Scale 3. The possible influence of early clinical markers on these outcomes was studied using Kaplan–Meier estimates and Cox models. The analysis was performed in the Rennes multiple sclerosis database (2054 patients, accounting for 26 273 patient-years) as a whole, and according to phenotype at onset (1609 relapsing/445 progressive onset). Our results indicated that the disability progression during Phase 2 was independent of that during Phase 1. Indeed, the median Phase 2 duration was nearly identical (from 6 to 9 years) irrespective of Phase 1 duration (<3, 3 to <6, 6 to <10, 10 to <15, ≥15 years) in the whole population, and in both phenotypes. In relapsing onset multiple sclerosis, gender, age at onset, residual deficit after the first relapse and relapses during the first 2 years of multiple sclerosis were found to be independent predictive factors of disability progression, but only during Phase 1. Our findings demonstrate that multiple sclerosis disability progression follows a two-stage process, with a first stage probably dependant on focal inflammation and a second stage probably independent of current focal inflammation. This concept has obvious implications for the future therapeutic strategy in multiple sclerosis.

From 1991-2002, we treated 58 patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) using the humanised monoclonal antibody, Campath-1H, which causes prolonged T lymphocyte depletion. Clinical and surrogate markers of inflammation were suppressed. In both the relapsing-remitting (RR) and secondary progressive (SP) stages of the illness, Campath-1H reduced the annual relapse rate (from 2.2 to 0.19 and from 0.7 to 0.001 respectively; both p < 0.001). Remarkably, MRI scans of patients with SP disease, treated with Campath-1H 7 years previously, showed no new lesion formation. However, despite these effects on inflammation, disability was differently affected depending on the phase of the disease. Patients with SPMS showed sustained accumulation of disability due to uncontrolled progression marked by unrelenting cerebral atrophy, attributable to ongoing axonal loss. The rate of cerebral atrophy was greatest in patients with established cerebral atrophy and highest inflammatory lesion burden before treatment (2.3 versus 0.7 ml/year; p = 0.04). In contrast, patients with RR disease showed an impressive reduction in disability at 6 months after Campath-1H (by a mean of 1.2 EDSS points) perhaps owing to a suppression of on-going inflammation in these patients with unusually active disease. In addition, there was a further significant, albeit smaller, mean improvement in disability up to 36 months after treatment. We speculate that this represents the beneficial effects of early rescue of neurons and axons from a toxic inflammatory environment, and that prevention of demyelination will prevent long-term axonal degeneration. These concepts are currently being tested in a controlled trial comparing Campath-1H and IFN-beta in the treatment of drug-naïve patients with early, active RR MS.

Our demographic data provide new data on disability in patients with neuromyelitis optica, most of whom were receiving treatment.

Objective We have previously identified male sex, younger age, and the presence of spinal cord lesions as independent factors that increase the 5‐year risk for evolution from radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS) to multiple sclerosis. Here, we investigate risk factors for the development of a clinical event using a 10‐year, multinational, retrospectively identified RIS dataset. Methods RIS subjects were identified according to 2009 RIS criteria and followed longitudinally as part of a worldwide cohort study. We analyzed data from 21 individual databases from 5 different countries. Associations between clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) characteristics and the risk of developing a first clinical event were determined using multivariate Cox regression models. Results Additional follow‐up data were available in 277 of 451 RIS subjects (86% female). The mean age at RIS diagnosis was 37.2 years (range, 11–74 years), with a median clinical follow‐up of 6.7 years. The cumulative probability of a first clinical event at 10 years was 51.2%. Age, positive cerebrospinal fluid for oligoclonal bands, infratentorial lesions on MRI, and spinal cord lesions, were baseline independent predictors associated with a subsequent clinical event. The presence of gadolinium‐enhanced lesions during follow‐up was also associated with the risk of a seminal event. The reason for MRI and gadolinium‐enhancing lesions at baseline did not influence the risk of a subsequent clinical event. Interpretation Approximately half of all individuals with RIS experience a first clinical event within 10 years of the index MRI. The identification of independent predictors of risk for symptom onset may guide education and clinical management of individuals with RIS. ANN NEUROL 2020;88:407–417.