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We show a sea surface temperature (SST) warming trend for the Caribbean and surrounding region over 1982–2012. Using an optimum interpolated SST product, a 30 year climatological analysis was generated to observe annual, monthly, and seasonal trends. Results show that SSTs are increasing annually for the region. For the two Caribbean rainy seasons, the Early Rainfall Season (ERS) and the Late Rainfall Season (LRS), estimated trends at 0.0161°C yr−1 and 0.0209°C yr−1 were observed, with high statistical significance. Subregional analysis revealed that warming is greatest in the Gulf of Mexico and north of South America during the ERS and LRS. Additionally, LRS averages for 1998–2012 reflect an increase in magnitude and intensity of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) since the 1983–1997 period reflected in the AWP Area Index. Extreme increases/decreases in the time series show potential correlation with El Niño and the Southern Oscillation.

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Warming sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) have implications for the climate-sensitive Caribbean region, including potential impacts on precipitation. SSTs have been shown to influence deep convection and rainfall, thus understanding the impacts of warming SSTs is important for predicting regional hydrometeorological conditions. This study investigates the long-term annual and seasonal trends in convection using the Galvez-Davison Index (GDI) for tropical convection from 1982–2020. The GDI is used to describe the type and potential for precipitation events characterized by sub-indices that represent heat and moisture availability, cool/warm mid-levels at 500 hPa, and subsidence inversion, which drive the regional Late, Early, and Dry Rainfall Seasons, respectively. Results show that regional SSTs are warming annually and per season, while regionally averaged GDI values are decreasing annually and for the Dry Season. Spatial analyses show the GDI demonstrates higher, statistically significant correlations with precipitation across the region than with sea-surface temperatures, annually and per season. Moreover, the GDI climatology results show that regional convection exhibits a bimodal pattern resembling the characteristic bimodal precipitation pattern experienced in many parts of the Caribbean and surrounding region. However, the drivers of these conditions need further investigation as SSTs continue to rise while the region experiences a drying trend.

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