Detection of recent regional sea surface temperature warming in the Caribbean and surrounding region

Glenn, Equisha; Comarazamy, Daniel E.; González, Jorge E.; Smith, Thomas M.

doi:10.1002/2015gl065002

Cited by 54 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Glenn et al . [] show statistically significant warming of 0.016°C yr −1 and 0.021°C yr −1 in the north tropical Atlantic (including the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and MDR) during the early and late Caribbean rainfall seasons respectively between 1982 and 2012. They note that for the late rainfall season which coincides with peak Atlantic hurricane activity, SST averages for 1998–2012 reflect an increase in magnitude and intensity of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) compared to the earlier 1983–1997 period.…”

Section: Data Statistical Models and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical downscaling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency and the amplified role of the Caribbean low‐level jet in a warmer climate

et al. 2016

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This study assesses the skill of four statistical models in hindcasting North Atlantic annual tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over 1950–2008 with the aim of projecting future activity. Three of the models are motivated by operational statistical forecast schemes and are premised on standard hurricane predictors including sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and near‐surface zonal winds. The fourth model uses an SST gradient index previously proposed for Caribbean seasonal rainfall prediction. The statistical models, created from backward regression, explain 24–48% of the observed variability in 1950–2008 annual TC frequency. The future state of the predictors is extracted from the ECHAM5, HadCM3, MRI CGCM2.3.2a, and MIROC3.2 global climate model (GCM) simulations under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3. Models utilizing SST and near‐surface wind predictors suggest significant increases in mean annual frequency by 2–8 TCs by 2070–2090, compared to a single surface wind predictor model, indicating that positive trends in SSTs under global warming have a larger relative influence on projections than changes in the variability of the surface winds. Wind‐only models exhibit declines in TC frequency, while the SST gradient model yields little change relative to the present‐day mean. Backward regression reapplied against the 1990–2008 period, analogous to future warmer oceanic and atmospheric state relative to the earlier years in the record, retains only the Caribbean low‐level jet (CLLJ)‐type predictors, explaining up to 82% of TC frequency variability and suggesting a more dominant role for the CLLJ in a warmer climate. Projections using the new models show either a more conservative increase or a stronger decrease in frequency, consistent with a stronger CLLJ.

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Section: Data Statistical Models and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical downscaling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency and the amplified role of the Caribbean low‐level jet in a warmer climate

et al. 2016

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“…In addition, a dry season (DS) is defined between December and March where the lowest rainfall intensity events are observed (see Figure 1(b)). IAR warming was recently detected with an annual SST increase of 0.016 ∘ C per year in the ERS, while in the LRS an SST increase of 0.021 ∘ C per year was observed [6]. This regional warming could disrupt the synoptic atmospheric and oceanic patterns.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The intra-American region encompasses Northern South America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean region, and the Western Atlantic [1][2][3], where a complex interaction among synoptic atmospheric/oceanic patterns drives the rainfall activity in the region [4][5][6][7] (see Figure 1(a)). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of Heat Waves Events in the Intra-Americas Region Using Multimodel Ensemble

Angeles-Malaspina

González-Cruz

Ramirez-Beltran

2018

Advances in Meteorology

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Significant accelerated warming of the Sea Surface Temperature of 0.15 ∘ C per decade was recently detected, which motivated the research for the present consequences and future projections on the heat index and heat waves in the intra-Americas region. Present records every six hours are retrieved from NCEP reanalysis to calculate heat waves changes. Heat index intensification has been detected in the region since 1998 and driven by surface pressure changes, sinking air enhancement, and warm/weaker cold advection. This regional warmer atmosphere leads to heat waves intensification with changes in both frequency and maximum amplitude distribution. Future projections using a multimodel ensemble mean for five global circulation models were used to project heat waves in the future under two scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Massive heat waves events were projected at the end of the 21st century, particularly in the RCP8.5 scenario. Consequently, the regional climate change in the current time and in the future will require special attention to mitigate the more intense and frequent heat waves impacts on human health, countries' economies, and energy demands in the IAR.

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“…In addition, stronger trade winds are related with lower SST, causing a drier Caribbean (Mapes et al 2005;Gamble and Curtis 2008). During the rainy season, a deep thermal convection is developed when a warmer Caribbean sea meets with low vertical wind shear (VWS), intensifying the rainfall generation (Angeles et al 2007(Angeles et al , 2010aGlenn et al 2015). At the same time, descending air coming from Central America could inhibit this vertical convection and hindering rainfall formation (Magaña and Caetano 2005;Gamble and Curtis 2008).…”

Section: Intra-americas Climatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A regional warming trend in Central America and the Caribbean region has been recently been reported, with an intensification in the Atlantic Warm Pool (Glenn et al 2015). This regional warming exhibits a positive annual sea surface temperature (SST) trend of 0.015°C per year from 1982 to 2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on building energy demands in the intra-Americas region

Angeles

González

Ramirez

2017

Theor Appl Climatol

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It was recently reported a regional warming in the intra-Americas region where sea surface temperature exhibited increases exceeding 0.15°C/decade and an accelerated air temperature rise that could impact building energy demands per capita (EDC). Reanalysis data is used herein to quantify the impacts of these warming trends on EDC. Results of the analysis depict a Southern Greater Antilles and inland South America with a positive annual EDC rate of 1-5 kWh per year. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios were selected to analyze energy demand changes in the twenty-first century. A multi-model ensemble forecasts an EDC increase of 9.6 and 23 kWh/month in the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 at the end of the twenty-first century, which may increase average building cooling loads in the region by 7.57 GW (RCP2.6) and 8.15 GW (RCP4.5), respectively. Furthermore, 4 of 9 (RCP2.6) and 7 of 9 (RCP4.5) of the major countries in this region have EDCs ranging between 1887 and 2252 kWh/year at the end of this century. Therefore, increased energy production and improved energy infrastructure will be required to maintain ideal indoor building conditions at the end of the twenty-first century in these tropical coastal regions as consequence of a warmer climate.

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Detection of recent regional sea surface temperature warming in the Caribbean and surrounding region

Cited by 54 publications

References 34 publications

Statistical downscaling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency and the amplified role of the Caribbean low‐level jet in a warmer climate

Statistical downscaling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency and the amplified role of the Caribbean low‐level jet in a warmer climate

Projections of Heat Waves Events in the Intra-Americas Region Using Multimodel Ensemble

Impacts of climate change on building energy demands in the intra-Americas region

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