Impacts of climate change on building energy demands in the intra-Americas region

Abstract

It was recently reported a regional warming in the intra-Americas region where sea surface temperature exhibited increases exceeding 0.15°C/decade and an accelerated air temperature rise that could impact building energy demands per capita (EDC). Reanalysis data is used herein to quantify the impacts of these warming trends on EDC. Results of the analysis depict a Southern Greater Antilles and inland South America with a positive annual EDC rate of 1-5 kWh per year. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios were selected to analyze energy demand changes in the twenty-first century. A multi-model ensemble forecasts an EDC increase of 9.6 and 23 kWh/month in the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 at the end of the twenty-first century, which may increase average building cooling loads in the region by 7.57 GW (RCP2.6) and 8.15 GW (RCP4.5), respectively. Furthermore, 4 of 9 (RCP2.6) and 7 of 9 (RCP4.5) of the major countries in this region have EDCs ranging between 1887 and 2252 kWh/year at the end of this century. Therefore, increased energy production and improved energy infrastructure will be required to maintain ideal indoor building conditions at the end of the twenty-first century in these tropical coastal regions as consequence of a warmer climate.

Seasonal Regional Differentiation of Human Thermal Comfort Conditions in Algeria

“…Angeles et al [53] revealed that, to maintain ideal indoor building conditions at the end of the twenty-first century in the Intra-Americas region, an increased energy production and improved energy infrastructure will be required.…”

Projections of Heat Waves Events in the Intra-Americas Region Using Multimodel Ensemble

“…Despite this, there is a probability increase to develop a maximum HI between 30 and 36 ∘ C. In the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5), massive HWs events are projected across the whole region, particularly in Central America, Mexico, and Northern South America. Additionally, there is a variation in both HWs number and maximum amplitude distribution shape with the maximum HI shifted to the interval 36-38 ∘ C. The socioeconomic implications of these projections for the region may be significant in terms of human health and energy demand projections, as the authors recently reported [66]. …”

“…Intense HI could develop extreme HW events with a high impact on human health [27,31,35,64,65] as well as in energy demand for air conditioning systems [66]. An early warning system is relevant to mitigate possible heat strokes' impact on the population's health.…”

“…Low errors were obtained, ranging from 1.0% to 5% [66]. Heat index trend analysis was performed using a multimodel ensemble mean.…”

Climate change impacts on peak building cooling energy demand in a coastal megacity

“…Cooling loads in tropical areas were derived from a multi-model ensemble (Angeles et al 2017) in low to medium emissions scenarios, finding mean total increases of over 8 GW for the Caribbean region. Lebassi et al (2010) used historical records to study CDD, demand, and consumption in California, finding large sensitivity to regional scale phenomena (e.g., increased sea-breeze impacting demand near the coast).…”