An ensemble prediction system featuring subkilometer horizontal grid spacing and high vertical resolution is used to quantify forecast uncertainty in the stable boundary layer (SBL). Diversity in initial conditions and/or planetary boundary layer/surface layer physics within the WRF Model provides ensembles with up to 12 members. WRF explicit ensemble data drive trajectory calculations and the Second-Order Closure Integrated Puff (SCIPUFF) model for hazard prediction. Explicit ensemble SCIPUFF forecasts are compared to single-member SCIPUFF forecasts leveraging WRF ensemble wind field uncertainty statistics. The performance of 1.3- and 0.4-km horizontal-gridlength ensemble configurations is evaluated for two case studies of differing flow regimes with respect to the Nittany Valley in central Pennsylvania where uncertainty in atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD) is dependent on drainage flows and circulations related to trapped lee-wave activity. Results demonstrate that a 12-member ensemble provides reasonable spread in ATD forecasts. Additionally, single-member SCIPUFF surface-dosage probability forecasts using the meteorological ensemble statistics generally reflect the pattern while encompassing the hazard area given by the explicit SCIPUFF ensemble, but at a reduced computational cost. Low-level wind and temperature forecasts given by the 12-member, 0.4-km ensemble are improved significantly over corresponding 1.3-km ensemble forecasts. In general, the 12-member, subkilometer-gridlength ensemble configuration reliably captures temperature and wind fluctuations related to drainage flows and trapped lee-wave activity that directly impact ATD. Localized data assimilation positively impacts overall probabilistic forecast skill when trapped lee waves are present, and drainage flow case results appear more dependent on model physics than initialization strategy.

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This brief paper addresses the frequency of precipitating open-cell convection over the northeastern Gulf of Alaska during a 5-yr period . The research employs 154 previously documented satellite synthetic aperture radar-derived wind speed (SDWS) images that contain open-cell convection signatures. Each SDWS image is paired with a near-in-time, National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler Level-III 0.58-elevation-angle short-range base reflectivity image from coastal Alaska for which coverage spatially overlaps open-cell convection signatures. The time difference between any two images of a single pair is typically a few minutes or less. For 65% of the image pairs, at least one SDWS open-cell convection signature in the overlap region is associated with precipitation. That percentage may be conservative given the method used in this research. Thus, the results of this research support a suggestion that has been posed in previous studies that the organization of open-cell convection can be controlled by the interaction of the environmental vertical wind shear and precipitation-driven cold pools.

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