Yield development of agricultural crops over time is not merely the result of genetic and agronomic factors, but also the outcome of a complex interaction between climatic and site-specific soil conditions. However, the influence of past climatic changes on yield trends remains unclear, particularly under consideration of different soil conditions. In this study, we determine the effects of single agrometeorological factors on the evolution of German winter wheat yields between 1958 and 2015 from 298 published nitrogen (N)-fertilization experiments. For this purpose, we separate climatic from genetic and agronomic yield effects using linear mixed effect models and estimate the climatic influence based on a coefficient of determination for these models. We found earlier occurrence of wheat growth stages, and shortened development phases except for the phase of stem elongation. Agrometeorological factors are defined as climate covariates related to the growth of winter wheat. Our results indicate a general and strong effect of agroclimatic changes on yield development, in particular due to increasing mean temperatures and heat stress events during the grain-filling period. Except for heat stress days with more than 31°C, yields at sites with higher yield potential were less prone to adverse weather effects than at sites with lower yield potential. Our data furthermore reveal that a potential yield levelling, as found for many West-European countries, predominantly occurred at sites with relatively low yield potential and about one decade earlier (mid-1980s) compared to averaged yield data for the whole of Germany. Interestingly, effects related to high precipitation events were less relevant than temperature-related effects and became relevant particularly during the vegetative growth phase. Overall, this study emphasizes the sensitivity of yield productivity to past climatic conditions, under consideration of regional differences, and underlines the necessity of finding adaptation strategies for food production under ongoing and expected climate change. K E Y W O R D Sclimate change impact, climate trend, long-term yield development, phenology trend, R 2 for mixed effect models, soil yield potential, weather extremes, Winter wheat

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Despite being a natural soil-forming process, soil acidification is a major agronomic challenge under humid climate conditions, as soil acidity influences several yield-relevant soil properties. It can be counterbalanced by the regular application of agricultural lime to maintain or re-establish soil fertility and to optimize plant growth and yield. To avoid underdose as well as overdose, lime rates need to be calculated carefully. The lime rate should be determined by the optimum soil pH (target pH) and the response of the soil to lime, which is described by the base neutralizing capacity (BNC). Several methods exist to determine the lime requirement (LR) to raise the soil pH to its optimum. They range from extremely time-consuming equilibration methods, which mimic the natural processes in the soil, to quick tests, which rely on some approximations and are designed to provide farmers with timely and cost-efficient data. Due to the higher analytical efforts, only limited information is available on the real BNC of particular soils. In the present paper, we report the BNC of 420 topsoil samples from Central Europe (north-east Germany), developed on sediments from the last ice age 10,000 years ago under Holocene conditions. These soils are predominantly sandy and low in humus, but they exhibit a huge spatial variability in soil properties on a small scale. The BNC was determined by adding various concentrations of Ca(OH)2 and fitting an exponential model to derive a titration curve for each sample. The coefficients of the BNC titration curve were well correlated with soil properties affecting soil acidity and pH buffer capacity, i.e., pH, soil texture and soil organic matter (SOM). From the BNC model, the LRs (LRBNC) were derived and compared with LRVDLUFA based on the standard protocol in Germany as established by the Association of German Agricultural Analytic and Research Institutes (VDLUFA). The LRBNC and LRVDLUFA correlated well but the LRVDLUFA were generally by approximately one order of magnitude higher. This is partly due to the VDLUFA concept to recommend a maintenance or conservation liming, even though the pH value is in the optimum range, to keep it there until the next lime application during the following rotation. Furthermore, the VDLUFA method was primarily developed from field experiments where natural soil acidification and management practices depressed the effect of lime treatment. The BNC method, on the other hand, is solely based on laboratory analysis with standardized soil samples. This indicates the demand for further research to develop a sound scientific algorithm that complements LRBNC with realistic values of annual Ca2+ removal and acidification by natural processes and N fertilization.