We investigated the potential economic impacts of future spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) (SBW) outbreaks on 2.8 million ha of Crown land in New Brunswick, Canada and compared an early intervention strategy (EIS) with foliage protection approaches. We coupled the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS) with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the impacts of EIS and foliage protection on 0%, 5%, 10%, and 20% of susceptible Crown (publicly owned) forest, under moderate and severe SBW outbreak scenarios. Cumulative available harvest supply from 2017 to 2067 was projected to be reduced by 29 to 43 million m3, depending upon SBW outbreak severity, and a successful EIS approach would prevent this loss. These harvest reductions were projected to reduce total economic output by $25 billion (CAD) to $35 billion. Scenarios using biological insecticide foliage protection over 20% of susceptible Crown forest area were projected to reduce losses to 6–17 million m3 and $0.5–4.1 billion. Depending upon SBW outbreak severity, EIS was projected to have benefit/cost ratios of 3.8 to 6.4 and net present values of $186 million to $353 million, both higher than foliage protection strategies. Sensitivity analysis scenarios of ‘what if’ EIS partially works (80% or 90%) showed that these produced superior timber harvest savings than the best foliage protection scenario under severe SBW outbreak conditions and generally superior results under moderate outbreak scenarios. Overall, results support the continued use of EIS as the preferred strategy on economic grounds to protect against SBW outbreaks on Crown land in New Brunswick.

Core Ideas The two‐step regression simulation approach was the most appropriate model to evaluate all important explanatory variables on mean potato yield.Potato yield increased when the frequency of potato increased in the rotation.Rotations with lower potato frequency had higher net revenue for the potato year; however, rotations with higher potato frequency had higher overall net revenues.The overall financial impacts of rotations with lower potato frequency were negative.Other incentives for adopting beneficial management practices are necessary. To reduce the impacts of intensive potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) production systems on the environment, beneficial management practices (BMPs) (e.g., crop rotation and conservation tillage) have been promoted in Atlantic Canada. However, quantitative information on the impacts of BMPs on yield and farm revenue is still lacking. Direct assessment of BMPs in operating farms is difficult because producers adjust other inputs and practices when implementing BMPs. A dataset with 5 yr of crop rotation, farm inputs, and soil and climate data was obtained from farms in New Brunswick, Canada. Two‐step regression with a stochastic production function method was used to assess the impacts of three crop rotations and two tillage practices on potato yield. Potato yield increased when potato frequency increased in the rotation. This effect was largely caused by increased fertilizer and other inputs on rotations with a higher potato frequency. Spring moldboard plowing had negative effects on yield compared with fall moldboard plowing. The two‐step yield model was used with different scenarios to estimate the effect of crop rotation on farm revenue net of input costs. Rotations with lower potato frequency had higher net revenue for the potato year, largely because of reduced input costs. However, rotations with higher potato frequency had higher overall (multiyear) net revenues because of the more valuable potato years in the rotation. Therefore, without considering the long‐term impacts on the environment, the overall financial impacts of rotations with lower potato frequency were negative. This suggests that other incentives for adopting BMPs are necessary.