Plastic in the global oceans fulfills two of the three conditions for pollution to pose a planetary boundary threat because it is causing planetary-scale exposure that is not readily reversible. Plastic is a planetary boundary threat if it is having a currently unrecognized disruptive effect on a vital Earth system process. Discovering possible unknown effects is likely to be aided by achieving a fuller understanding of the environmental fate of plastic. Weathering of plastic generates microplastic, releases chemical additives, and likely also produces nanoplastic and chemical fragments cleaved from the polymer backbone. However, weathering of plastic in the marine environment is not well understood in terms of time scales for fragmentation and degradation, the evolution of particle morphology and properties, and hazards of the chemical mixture liberated by weathering. Biofilms that form and grow on plastic affect weathering, vertical transport, toxicity, and uptake of plastic by marine organisms and have been underinvestigated. Laboratory studies, field monitoring, and models of the impact of weathering on plastic debris are needed to reduce uncertainty in hazard and risk assessments for known and suspected adverse effects. However, scientists and decision makers must also recognize that plastic in the oceans may have unanticipated effects about which we are currently ignorant. Possible impacts that are currently unknown can be confronted by vigilant monitoring of plastic in the oceans and discovery-oriented research related to the possible effects of weathering plastic.

[1] Particle size distributions (PSDs) of suspended particulate matters in a coastal zone are lognormal and multimodal in general. The multimodal PSD, which is caused by the mixing of multiple particle and aggregate size groups under flocculation and erosion/resuspension, is a record of the particle and aggregate dynamics in a coastal zone. Curve-fitting software was used to decompose the multimodal PSD into subordinate lognormal PSDs of primary particles, flocculi, microflocs, and macroflocs. The curve-fitting analysis for a time series of multimodal PSDs in the Belgian coastal zone showed the dependency of the multimodality on (1) shear-dependent flocculation in a flood and ebb tide, (2) breakage-resistant flocculation in the spring season, and (3) silt-sized particle erosion and advection in a storm surge. Also, for modeling and simulation purposes, the curve-fitting analysis and the settling flux estimation for the multimodal PSDs showed the possibility of using discrete groups of primary particles, flocculi, microflocs, and macroflocs as an approximation of a continuous multimodal PSD.

We described in 2017 how weathering plastic litter in the marine environment fulfils two of three criteria to impose a planetary boundary threat related to "chemical pollution and the release of novel entities": (1) planetary-scale exposure, which (2) is not readily reversible. Whether marine plastics meet the third criterion, (3) eliciting a disruptive impact on vital earth system processes, was uncertain. Since then, several important discoveries have been made to motivate a re-evaluation. A key issue is if weathering macroplastics, microplastics, nanoplastics, and their leachates have an inherently higher potential to elicit adverse effects than natural particles of the same size. We summarize novel findings related to weathering plastic in the context of the planetary boundary threat criteria that demonstrate (1) increasing exposure, (2) fate processes leading to poorly reversible pollution, and (3) (eco)toxicological hazards and their thresholds. We provide evidence that the third criterion could be fulfilled for weathering plastics in sensitive environments and therefore conclude that weathering plastics pose a planetary boundary threat. We suggest future research priorities to better understand (eco)toxicological hazards modulated by increasing exposure and continuous weathering processes, to better parametrize the planetary boundary threshold for plastic pollution.

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