No abstract

Trend tests for monotone trend or umbrella trend (monotone upward changing to monotone downward or vise versa) in count data are proposed when the data exhibit extra-Poisson variability. The proposed tests, which are called the GS1 test and the GS2 test, are constructed by applying an orthonormal score vector to a generalized score test under an rth-order log-linear model. These tests are compared by simulation with the Cochran-Armitage test and the quasi-likelihood test of Piegorsch and Bailer (1997, Statistics for Environmental Biology and Toxicology). It is shown that the Cochran-Armitage test should not be used under the existence of extra-Poisson variability; that, for detecting monotone trend, the GS1 test is superior to the others; and that the GS2 test has high power to detect an umbrella response.

No abstract

In the digital era, technology plays a much bigger role all over the world including in Indonesia. In fact, Indonesia’s ICT Development Index (IDI) has improved over time. However, it is noticeable that disparities among regions in regards to ICT development are still wide resulting in digital divide. This paper aims to examine the convergence of regions with regard to ICT development and analyze the key factors which drive the convergence process using annual data from 2015 to 2019. Spatial panel regression method is used to test for absolute and conditional beta convergence. The results reveal that there is evidence for the existence of absolute and conditional convergence in regards to ICT development in Indonesia. Regarding conditional convergence, the convergence process takes a shorter time to reach half-time convergence by taking into account several control variables consisting of output in ICT sector, FDI, and government allocation on education. In addition, the significant spatial correlation among provinces shows that the growth of neighboring provinces’ ICT development also contributes to the convergence process. This finding implies that the digital divide has declined and the factors mentioned above are important instruments to help bridge the digital divide.

Pengurangan ketimpangan menjadi salah satu fokus tujuan yang ingin diraih oleh seluruh bangsa. Hal ini tergambar dari Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) yang disepakati oleh seluruh kepala negara yang mewakili bangsa-bangsa di seluruh dunia. Pengurangan ketimpangan menjadi target SDGs nomor sepuluh. Di Indonesia, ketimpangan pendapatan menjadi salah satu permasalahan utama.. Jawa Timur menjadi salah satu provinsi dengan ketimpangan pendapatan yang meningkat setiap tahunnya. Tahun 2017, Gini ratio meningkat sebesar 0,003 menjadi 0,4055. Di sisi lain pertumbuhan ekonomi di provinsi tersebut berada di atas rata-rata nasional. Tahun 2016, laju pertumbuhan ekonomi provinsi tumbuh sebesar 5,55 persen, lebih besar dari rata-rata nasional yakni 5,02 persen. Penelitian bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ketimpangan pendapatan di Jawa Timur, terutama wilayah Arek, Pandalungan, Mataraman dan Madura. Metodologi penelitan yang digunakan adalah Analisis Profil serta Regresi Data Panel. Hasil analisis profil menunjukkan bahwa empat kelompok daerah di Jawa Timur memiliki karakteristik gini ratio yang berbeda. Hasil penelitian lanjutan menunjukkan perbedaan variabel independen yang signifikan mempengaruhi gini ratio di Jawa Timur. Tingkat pengangguran terbuka berpengaruh di wilayah Mataraman dan Arek, investasi berpengaruh positif di wilayah Pandalungan dan Mataraman. Variabel jumlah penduduk berpengaruh positif di wilayah Arek, Mataraman dan Pandalungan. Pemerintah harus mengendalikan pertumbuhan penduduk, meningkatkan jumlah lapangan pekerjaan serta mengarahkan investasi agar ketimpangan pendapatan dapat dikurangi.