Chile has a long-standing history of natural disasters and, in particular, earthquakes. The latest big earthquake hit Chile on 27 February 2010 with a magnitude of 8.8 on the Richter scale. As an event that had a profound impact on significant portions of the population, the earthquake could theoretically have served to build trust by promoting new trust networks through the enhancement of distant family ties and the interaction between affected neighbours. This study offers an empirical analysis of this theory in the Chilean case. It finds that if initial social capital is very low (thus allowing for post-disaster looting and violence), then the impact of the trust-increasing effect is smaller. It also shows that the effect of the disaster was not transitory, but that it persisted and actually increased over time.

Background Seroprevalence studies provide an accurate measure of SARS-CoV-2 spread and the presence of asymptomatic cases. They also provide information on the uneven impact of the pandemic, pointing out vulnerable groups to prioritize which is particularly relevant in unequal societies. However, due to their high cost, they provide limited evidence of spatial spread of the pandemic specially in unequal societies. Our objective was to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Chile and model its spatial risk distribution. Methods During Oct–Nov 2020, we conducted a population-based serosurvey in Santiago, Talca, and Coquimbo–La Serena (2493 individuals). We explored the individual association between positive results and socio-economic and health-related variables by logistic regression for complex surveys. Then, using an Empirical Bayesian Kriging model, we estimated the infection risk spatial distribution using individual and census information, and compared these results with official records. Results Seroprevalence was 10.4% (95% CI 7.8–13.7%), ranging from 2% (Talca) to 11% (Santiago), almost three times the number officially reported. Approximately 36% of these were asymptomatic, reaching 82% below 15 years old. Seroprevalence was associated with the city of residence, previous COVID-19 diagnosis, contact with confirmed cases (especially at household), and foreign nationality. The spatial model accurately interpolated the distribution of disease risk within the cities finding significant differences in the predicted probabilities of SARS-CoV-2 infection by census zone (IQR 2.5–15.0%), related to population density and education. Conclusions Our results underscore the transmission heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 within and across three urban centers of Chile. Socio-economic factors and the outcomes of this seroprevalence study enable us to identify priority areas for intervention. Our methodological approach and results can help guide the design of interdisciplinary strategies for urban contexts, not only for SARS-CoV-2 but also for other communicable diseases.

No abstract

RESUMEN El objetivo de este documento es aplicar la teoría del capital social (cuyo principal indicador es la confianza) al problema específico del accountability en educación. La evidencia indica que países de bajo capital social (como Polonia) y países de alto capital social (como Finlandia) han podido desarrollar políticas educacionales exitosas, según las mediciones internacionales. Uno de los determinantes del éxito polaco en su reforma educacional, que comenzó principios de la década pasada, fue la instauración formal de un sistema de accountability centralizado. Por su parte, Finlandia tiene un sistema basado en la confianza y en el profesionalismo docente, donde las pruebas estandarizadas no tienen cabida. Los países latinoamericanos, entre los que se cuenta Chile, tienen bajos desempeños en las pruebas internacionales. Es natural, por tanto, que miren hacia las experiencias exitosas, con el objetivo de aprender de ellas y eventualmente adoptar alguna de sus políticas. Se argumenta que el sustrato social sobre el que se construye una determinada institucionalidad es fundamental para determinar el éxito o fracaso de esas adaptaciones. Los países latinoamericanos tienen niveles muy bajos de capital social, al igual que Polonia y, por lo tanto, debieran aprender de la reforma educacional polaca. El caso finlandés parece menos aplicable en Latinoamérica, ya que solo países con alto capital social pueden funcionar sobre la base de instituciones de accountability informales. Palabras clave: capital social, confianza, accountability, reforma educacional Why can Finland do Without accountability in education, but Poland cannot?

No abstract