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Cities, regions and countries are increasingly adapting to climate change. Adaptation approaches often build on disaster management activities to deal with climate extremes and make improvements to already existing systems to prepare for climate change, e.g., through water engineering or cooling existing buildings. But ideally, adaptation strategies aim also at tackling the root causes of climate risks through broader sustainable development pathways. Such transformational approaches, however, are still in their infancy. In this perspective paper we argue that there is a lack of guidance to support policy-makers to develop transformational adaptation strategies. There is a need and opportunity to develop climate services that support transformational adaptation. We explore how climate services can support transformational adaptation, drawing from literature, practical experience and illustrative examples. We identify four knowledge requirements: (1) system knowledge to identify the root causes and solutions; (2) inspirational and cross-disciplinary knowledge to develop a long-term vision; (3) a clear climate message and guiding principles to mainstream the vision; and (4) design principles that are connected to the priorities and interests of the stakeholders. We conclude that developing climate services for transformational adaptation involves a delicate process of simplifying and aggregating climate knowledge, as well as integrating it with knowledge about the physical, economic and social systems of cities and regions. This means that climate service providers need to widen their scope and skills, and collaborate with experts in the fields urban planning, landscape architecture, ecology, health, and sociology.

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This essay addresses the long-term effectiveness of urban climate change adaptation approaches, based, inter alia, on work in the C40 city network. We argue that in most cities, the dominant framing of climate risk management almost exclusively focuses on short-term incrementalities and preventive solutions directly tackling hazards, vulnerability, and exposure. This approach has serious flaws, leading to missed opportunities for longer-term sustainable urban development. Until very recently, climate science usually provided only a marginal input to long-term urban planning and design. We argue that any analysis of urban climate risk management and the associated climate services should be broadened beyond solely climate focusing on impacts. In this context, the development of positive urban visions is a key gap for both research and practice. A change is required from negatively addressing risks to positively pursuing a positive vision of attractive, resilient, and sustainable cities. The emphasis on short-term incremental solutions should shift towards long-term transformation. This embodies a paradigm shift from “function follows system” to “system follows function”. For many cities, this also means a change in procedural practice from siloed top-down to integrated, participatory urban transformation. Our main argument in this paper is that simple, longer-term sustainable urban transformation would not only reduce climate risks but also enhance overall environmental quality, economic opportunities, and social wellbeing.