S tatistical aggregation is often used to combine multiple opinions within a group. Such aggregates outperform individuals, including experts, in various prediction and estimation tasks. This result is attributed to the "wisdom of crowds." We seek to improve the quality of such aggregates by eliminating poorly performing individuals from the crowd. We propose a new measure of contribution to assess the judges' performance relative to the group and use positive contributors to build a weighting model for aggregating forecasts. In Study 1, we analyze 1,233 judges forecasting almost 200 current events to illustrate the superiority of our model over unweighted models and models weighted by measures of absolute performance. In Study 2, we replicate our findings by using economic forecasts from the European Central Bank and show how the method can be used to identify smaller crowds of the top positive contributors. We show that the model derives its power from identifying experts who consistently outperform the crowd.Data, as supplemental material, are available at http://dx.

Across a wide range of tasks, research has shown that people make poor probabilistic predictions of future events. Recently, the U.S. Intelligence Community sponsored a series of forecasting tournaments designed to explore the best strategies for generating accurate subjective probability estimates of geopolitical events. In this article, we describe the winning strategy: culling off top performers each year and assigning them into elite teams of superforecasters. Defying expectations of regression toward the mean 2 years in a row, superforecasters maintained high accuracy across hundreds of questions and a wide array of topics. We find support for four mutually reinforcing explanations of superforecaster performance: (a) cognitive abilities and styles, (b) task-specific skills, (c) motivation and commitment, and (d) enriched environments. These findings suggest that superforecasters are partly discovered and partly created-and that the high-performance incentives of tournaments highlight aspects of human judgment that would not come to light in laboratory paradigms focused on typical performance.

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Aggregation-based assays, using micro-and nano-particles have been widely accepted as an efficient and cost-effective bio-sensing tool, particularly in microbiology, where particle clustering events are used as a metric to infer the presence of a specific target analyte and quantify its concentration. Here, we present a sensitive and automated readout method for aggregation-based assays using a wide-field lens-free on-chip microscope, with the ability to rapidly analyze and quantify microscopic particle aggregation events in 3D, using deep learning-based holographic image reconstruction. In this method, the computation time for hologram reconstruction and particle autofocusing steps remains constant, regardless of the number of particles/clusters within the 3D sample volume, which provides a major throughput advantage, brought by deep learning-based image reconstruction. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate rapid detection of herpes simplex virus (HSV) by monitoring the clustering of antibodycoated micro-particles, achieving a detection limit of ~5 viral copies/µL (i.e., ~25 copies/test).

We use results from a multiyear, geopolitical forecasting tournament to highlight the ability of the contribution weighted model [Budescu DV, Chen E (2015) Identifying expertise to extract the wisdom of crowds. Management Sci. 61(2):267–280] to capture and exploit expertise. We show that the model performs better when judges gain expertise from manipulations such as training in probabilistic reasoning and collaborative interaction from serving on teams. We document the model’s robustness using probability judgments from early, middle, and late phases of the forecasting period and by showing its strong performance in the presence of hypothetical malevolent forecasters. The model is highly cost-effective: it operates well, even with random attrition, as the number of judges shrinks and information on their past performance is reduced.