In this article, we provide a critique of previous estimates of war-related deaths from Bosnia and Herzegovina and propose an analytical framework and a new estimate of such deaths. Our assessment is concentrated on civilian victims, whose death (or disappearance) can in a straightforward manner be linked with war operation. The estimate is based on carefully selected sources analysed jointly at the level of individual records, allowing for identity verification of victims, elimination of duplicates within the sources and exclusion of records overlapping between the sources. Although we can argue that our estimate is much better founded than any other estimate ever obtained, it is still incomplete and should be seen as work in progress. Tabeau, E. et J. Bijak, 2005, De´ce`s dus a`la guerre durant le conflit arme´en BosnieHerze´govine de 1992 a`1995 : critique des estimations existantes et nouveaux re´sultats. Revue Europe´enne de De´mographie, 21: 187-215.Re´sume´. Cet article pre´sente une analyse critique des estimations existantes sur les de´ce`s dus al a guerre en Bosnie-He´rze´govine et propose un cadre d'analyse et une nouvelle estimation de ces de´ce`s. Cette estimation porte sur les victimes civiles, dont la mort (ou la disparition) peut eˆtre relie´e d'une fac¸on directe aux ope´rations de guerre. Elle repose sur une se´lection rigoureuse de sources, traite´es conjointement au niveau des donne´es individuelles, ce qui permet la ve´rification de l'identite´des victimes, l'e´limination des doublons au sein de chaque source et l'identification des cas pre´sents dans plusieurs sources. Meˆme si cette estimation est sans aucun doute meilleure que toutes celles de´ja`publie´es, elle reste incomple`te et doit eˆtre conside´re´e comme une e´tape provisoire dans un travail encore en cours.

The goal of Chapter 1 is to describe and comment on the methods and approaches that have been in use or have emerged in recent years. Section 1.1 introduces the most common classifications of forecasting models for mortality. Section 1.2 is devoted to a brief historical review of parameterisation functions. In this context, attention is paid to prediction based on parameterised age schedules, in particular by using time series models. Section 1.3 focuses on the (statistical association) models of Lee and Carter and Section 1.4 characterises the (log-linear) age-period-cohort models. In Section 1.5 the reader can find a review of the methods used in international statistical practice and in Section 1.6 the importance of uncertainty in forecasting is addressed. Section 1.7 outlines the prospects for modelling and forecasting mortality as seen from the perspective of this chapter. | Most Common Classifications of Forecasting Models for MortalityA positive feature of forecasting mortality in developed countries is that adequate historical information is usually available, at least for aggregate measurements. In this case the two salient questions facing a forecaster are finding an accurate description of the past, and secondly, taking on judgemental factors in order to produce plausible forecasts. The first can be viewed as a technical problem essentially concerned with modelling and 1 E. Tabeau et al. (eds.), Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries, 1-32.

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This introductory article focuses on a new field in demography, the Demography of Conflict and Violence. A research programme on this field is proposed as a result of activities of the IUSSP Working Group on Demography of Conflict and Violence, in particular the Group's seminar in Norway in November 2003. The articles in this special issue of EJP are a selection of papers presented at the seminar. The first article presents new estimates of combat deaths in the world since 1946, whereas the second article looks at the role of demographic estimates in war crime proceedings at international criminal courts. The rest of the articles are concerned with the mortality consequences of political conflict in various settings. Another set of articles from the seminar is published in a special issue of the Journal of Peace Research. The articles are summarised and reviewed using the broader framework of issues inherent in the Demography of Conflict and Violence.

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