Factors governing spatiotemporal variations of the daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are studied using 35-yr (1979–2013) data records by employing multiple linear regression, wavelet transforms, and bandpass filtering methods. From the regression coefficients of nine predictors and the explained variances, we found that the largest contributions to OLR variability are associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO signatures on OLR show dipole patterns over the Maritime Continent (MC) and Pacific regions with an extension to the Atlantic. Subsequently, the third significant contribution of the Indian Ocean dipole is confined to the Indian Ocean and Africa. Then, the solar cycle and stratospheric aerosols show mainly negative correlations, while a positive linear trend is observed mainly in the Northern Hemisphere. Lastly, factors associated with the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are the least significant contributor to OLR. In terms of oscillatory signals, time–longitude variations of the annual cycle (AC) show pairs of contrasting phases that characterize monsoon systems, in which the MC and Pacific regions are found to be in the same phase group. The most consistent AC signals are found to correspond with North and South American monsoons that respectively exhibit weakening and strengthening trends. Wavelet spectra and filtered OLR signals in intraseasonal oscillation, QBO, and ENSO frequency bands show an interdependent relationship that largely varies with time scale and longitudes.
Wind-related disasters are one of the most frequent disasters in Indonesia. It can cause severe damages of residential construction, especially in the world’s most populated island of Java. Understanding the characteristics of extreme winds is crucial for mitigating the disasters and for defining structural design standards. This study investigated the spatiotemporal variations of extreme winds and pioneered a design wind map in Indonesia by focusing on western Java. Based on gust data observed in recent years from 24 stations, the extreme winds exhibit a clear annual cycle where northwestern and southeastern sides of western Java show out-of-phase relationship due to reversal monsoons. Meanwhile, extreme wind occurrences are mostly affected by small-scale weather systems, regardless of seasons and locations. To build the wind map, we used bias-corrected gust from ERA5 and applied the Gumbel method to predict extreme winds with different return periods. The wind map highlights some drawbacks of the current national design standards, which use single wind speed values regardless of location and return period. Beside a fundamental improvement for wind design, this study will benefit disaster risk mapping and other applications that require extreme wind speed distribution.
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