The purpose of this study was to determine and test the effect of career development, servant leadership and work motivation on employee performance, to determine and test the effect of career development and servant leadership on employee work motivation at the Human Resources and Human Resources Development Agency in Denpasar City and to know and test the effect career development and servant leadership on employee performance through work motivation as an intervening variable. The population of this research is all permanent employees in the Human Resources Development and Human Resources Agency in Denpasar, which amounted to 48 people. The sampling method uses the census method (saturated sample), so that a sample of 48 people is obtained. Data analysis techniques using Structural Equation Modeling Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS). The results showed that (1) Career development had a positive and significant effect on employee performance; (2) Servant leadership has a positive and significant effect on employee performance; (3) Career development has a positive and positive effect on employee work motivation; (4) Servant leadership has a positive and significant effect on employee work motivation; (5) Work motivation has a positive and significant effect on employee performance; (6) Career development has a positive and significant effect on employee performance; (7); Servant Leadership has a positive and significant effect on employee performance.

Peramalan data time-series kini menjadi suatu kebutuhan dalam dunia bisnis maupun lingkungan hidup. Software Windows POM – QM memiliki tools dan beberapa metode yang dapat digunakan untuk peramalan data time-series. Diperlukan sebuah analisa hasil peramalan untuk mengetahui efektivitas dan akurasi metode-metode tersebut dalam meramalkan data time series agar dapat digunakan sebagai referensi metode dalam mendapatkan hasil yang optimal. Nilai MAPE digunakan sebagai ukuran perbandingan dalam analisa hasil perbandingan peramalan. Data time series yang digunakan adalah data curah hujan di Kabupaten Jombang. Hasil peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing memiliki rata – rata nilai MAPE terkecil dibandingkan dengan metode lainnya yaitu sebesar 2,4 dengan pola data hasil peramalan berfluktuasi sebagaimana data sebenarnya. Sehingga penggunaan metode Exponential Smoothing dapat digunakan sebegai referensi dalam peramalan data time series dengan pola data musiman dengan menggunakan software Windows POM-QM.

Abstract   Happiness is the expectation for every person including teenager. Study explaining that a broken home is a condition when the family is no longer intact. Family disorganization can be due to divorce, the death of one of the parents or problems that are not resolved properly. It could even be because of a third person in household matters, such as parents, in-laws, or the presence of another ideal woman or man. However, parental divorce may have impact on teenagers’ happiness. The aim of this study is to know happiness in teenager whose parents divorced. Data for this research were obtained using qualitative method with case study design. Subject was selected using purposive sampling technique. The respondent was a male teenager with divorced parents. Data collection was carried out through interview. The results showed that the respondent had three aspects of happiness are life is pleasant, meaningful, and engaging.

Puskesmas as a First Level Health Facility that provides individual health services and community health services, is responsible for its working area. Public health efforts are made to increase public knowledge of the quality of health services it receives. This study aims to determine the activities of Customer Relationship Management and service quality that can affect patient satisfaction and its impact on patient loyalty of non-Social Security Administering Bodies (BPJS) at the Pasar Rebo District Health Center and the Kramat Jati District Health Center. This research method is a survey method. The selection of respondents was carried out using random sampling techniques on non-BPJS patients at the Kramat Jati Subdistrict Health Center and Pasar Rebo District Health Center and primary data was collected using a validated questionnaire. The research approach is quantitative descriptive and statistical data analysis of research results using Structural Equation Modeling. Data analysis from 200 completed questionnaires that meet the inclusion criteria. Based on the results of the study, the path coefficient value on patient satisfaction is Customer Relationship Management of 0.266, service quality of 0.773, while the results of research on patient loyalty are Customer Relationship Management of 0.270, service quality of 0.191 and patient satisfaction of 0.421. Effective Customer Relationship Management, good service quality and high patient satisfaction can increase patient loyalty.