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Quadrature phase shift keying (QPSK) is one of modulation schemes used in advanced wireless communication systems. It is known to be robust against the channel impairement. However, when it is used with sophisticated signal processing, it makes Monte Carlo simulation method time consumming. In this paper, we propose a semi-analytical prediction method which provides a significant gain in term of computing time.

Analytical performance evaluation of a digital communication system remains a serious problem especially when a sophisticated digital signal processing is considered. Moreover, it is difficult to obtain the expected performance of such system using the Monte Carlo simulation method. In this paper, we propose a new semi-analytical approach for predicting error probability in a digital communication system. This approach is based on Fourier transform inversion formula to estimate the probability density function (pdf) of the observed soft sample at the receiver. Furthermore, we applied a bootstrap method for selecting the optimal smoothing parameter to make the proposed semi-analytical method more accurate. Simulation results show that the obtained semi-analytical error probability is close to the one measured using Monte Carlo simulation and provides a significant gain in terms of computing time. Besides, the use of the bootstrap method decreases the squared error between the true pdf and the estimated one.

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