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Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion is thought to influence the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric climate. Recently, Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) variations have been found to affect the middle-high latitude tropospheric climate in the Northern Hemisphere. This paper demonstrates that the impact of ASO can extend to the tropics, with the ASO variations leading El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events by about 20 months. Using observations, analysis, and simulations, the connection between ASO and ENSO is established by combining the high-latitude stratosphere to troposphere pathway with the extratropical to tropical climate teleconnection. This shows that the ASO radiative anomalies influence the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the anomalous NPO and induced Victoria Mode anomalies link to the North Pacific circulation that then influences ENSO. Our results imply that incorporating realistic and time-varying ASO into climate system models may help to improve ENSO predictions.

Abstract. The effects of El Niño Modoki events on the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) and on the stratosphere were investigated using European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalysis data, satellite observations from the Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), oceanic El Niño indices, and general climate model outputs. El Niño Modoki events tend to depress convective activities in the western and eastern Pacific but enhance convective activities in the central and northern Pacific. Consequently, during Modoki events, negative water vapor anomalies occur in the western and eastern Pacific upper troposphere, whereas there are positive anomalies in the central and northern Pacific upper troposphere. The spatial patterns of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and upper tropospheric water vapor anomalies exhibit a tripolar form. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the OLR and upper tropospheric water vapor anomalies reveals that canonical El Niño events are associated with the leading mode of the EOF, while El Niño Modoki events correspond to the second mode. El Niño Modoki activities tend to moisten the lower and middle stratosphere, but dry the upper stratosphere. It was also found that the canonical El Niño signal can overlay linearly on the QBO signal in the stratosphere, whereas the interaction between the El Niño Modoki and QBO signals is non-linear. Because of these non-linear interactions, El Niño Modoki events have a reverse effect on high latitudes stratosphere, as compared with the effects of typical Modoki events, i.e. the northern polar vortex is stronger and colder but the southern polar vortex is weaker and warmer during El Niño Modoki events. However, simulations suggest that canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki activities actually have the same influence on high latitudes stratosphere, in the absence of interactions between QBO and ENSO signals. The present results also reveal that canonical El Niño events have a greater impact on the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere stratosphere than on the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. However, El Niño Modoki events can more profoundly influence the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere stratosphere than the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere stratosphere.

The cold tongue mode (CTM) is the second EOF mode of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) variability over the tropical Pacific and represents the out‐of‐phase relationship in SSTA variability between the Pacific cold tongue region and elsewhere in the tropical Pacific. A positive CTM is characterized by cold SSTA in the Pacific cold tongue region and warm SSTA in the rest of the tropical Pacific, with conditions reversed for a negative CTM. The CTM is a coupled air‐sea mode, and its long‐term variability is most probably induced by ocean dynamical processes in response to global warming [Zhang et al., 2010]. This study focuses on the specific ocean dynamical processes associated with the CTM and its possible relationship with global warming. A heat budget diagnosis of ocean temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific shows that the net heat flux plays a damping role and the four ocean advection terms ( , , , and ) contribute to the temperature change associated with the CTM. Among them, the vertical advection of the anomalous temperature by the mean upwelling ( ) makes a dominant contribution to the long‐term change in the CTM. The long‐term change of the term is controlled mainly by the decreasing vertical gradient of the ocean temperature anomaly ( ). The other three advection terms make a minor contribution to the long‐term change in the CTM.