A primary hurdle in observing small foreshocks is the detection-limit of most seismic networks, which is typically about magnitude M1-1.5. We show that a start-up test of a borehole-based seismic network with a much lower detection limit overcame this problem for an Mw4.2 earthquake. This earthquake occurred offshore of Istanbul, Turkey, on a fault system that is likely to rupture in an M > 7 event in the coming decades. In the three days before and two after, a total of 62 or more earthquakes, including at least 18 foreshocks, came from the mainshock source area. The signal similarity of the foreshocks shows a clear increase during the hours before the Mw4.2 mainshock. Similar foreshock sequences have recently been reported for a few well monitored M > 7 plate-boundary earthquakes. The sequence surrounding the Mw4.2 gives the impression of stochastic failures that ended up interactively unloading stress concentrations. The Mw4.2 mainshock then resulted from the accumulated release of significantly smaller events, as suggested by other field and laboratory studies.

Abstract. In 2018 and 2019, we performed STIMulation tests with characterising periodic pumping tests and high-resolution seismic monitoring for improving prognosis models and real-time monitoring TEChnologies for the creation of hydraulic conduits in crystalline rocks (STIMTEC). The STIMTEC underground research laboratory is located at 130 m depth in the Reiche Zeche mine in Freiberg, Germany. The experiment was designed to investigate the rock damage resulting from hydraulic stimulation and to link seismic activity and enhancement of hydraulic properties in strongly foliated metamorphic gneiss. We present results from active and passive seismic monitoring prior to and during hydraulic stimulations. We characterise the structural anisotropy and heterogeneity of the reservoir rocks at the STIMTEC site and the induced high-frequency (>1 kHz) acoustic emission (AE) activity, associated with brittle deformation at the centimetre-to-decimetre scale. We derived the best velocity model per recording station from over 300 active ultrasonic transmission measurements for high-accuracy AE event location. The average P-wave anisotropy is 12 %, in agreement with values derived from laboratory tests on core material. We use a 16-station seismic monitoring network comprising AE sensors, accelerometers, one broadband sensor and one AE hydrophone. All instrumentation was removable, providing us with the flexibility to use existing boreholes for multiple purposes. This approach also allowed for optimising the (near)-real-time passive monitoring system during the experiment. To locate AE events, we tested the effect of different velocity models and inferred their location accuracy. Based on the known active ultrasonic transmission measurement points, we obtained an average relocation error of 0.26±0.06 m where the AE events occurred using a transverse isotropic velocity model per station. The uncertainty resulting from using a simplified velocity model increased to 0.5–2.6 m, depending on whether anisotropy was considered or not. Structural heterogeneity overprints anisotropy of the host rock and has a significant influence on velocity and attenuation, with up to 4 % and up to 50 % decrease on velocity and wave amplitude, respectively. Significant variations in seismic responses to stimulation were observed ranging from abundant AE events (several thousand per stimulated interval) to no activity with breakdown pressure values ranging between 6.4 and 15.6 MPa. Low-frequency seismic signals with varying amplitudes were observed for all stimulated intervals that are more correlated with the injection flow rate rather than the pressure curve. We discuss the observations from STIMTEC in context of similar experiments performed in underground research facilities to highlight the effect of small-scale rock, stress and structural heterogeneity and/or anisotropy observed at the decametre scale. The reservoir complexity at this scale supports our conclusion that field-scale experiments benefit from high-sensitivity, wide-bandwidth instrumentation and flexible monitoring approaches to adapt to unexpected challenges during all stages of the experiment.

A primary hurdle in observing small foreshocks is the detection-limit of most seismic networks, which is typically about magnitude M1-1.5. We show that a start-up test of a borehole-based seismic network with a much lower detection limit overcame this problem for an M w 4.2 earthquake. This earthquake occurred offshore of Istanbul, Turkey, on a fault system that is likely to rupture in an M > 7 event in the coming decades. In the three days before and two after, a total of 62 or more earthquakes, including at least 18 foreshocks, came from the mainshock source area. The signal similarity of the foreshocks shows a clear increase during the hours before the M w 4.2 mainshock. Similar foreshock sequences have recently been reported for a few well monitored M > 7 plate-boundary earthquakes. The sequence surrounding the M w 4.2 gives the impression of stochastic failures that ended up interactively unloading stress concentrations. The M w 4.2 mainshock then resulted from the accumulated release of significantly smaller events, as suggested by other field and laboratory studies.

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