No abstract

Policies that restrict the use of agricultural inputs have been shown to reduce output, farmers' incomes, and increase food prices, which could ultimately lead to more food insecurity. In this paper, we consider the EU Farm to Fork Strategy's proposed reductions of agricultural inputs on food security in 77 low‐ and middle‐income countries under two implementation scenarios: EU‐only and Global. Our findings indicate that compared with the status quo, each scenario results in a net increase in food insecurity, which ranges from 30 million (EU‐only) to 171 million (Global) by 2030.

COVID-19 has led to a wealth of research examining possible impacts; however, potential impacts to food security have received much less attention. We use a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the potential impacts of COVID-19 using observed changes from 2020 (September) in unemployment, trade, oil prices, and production to inform our model. Estimated GDP and food price changes are then used as inputs into the International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model which estimates changes in food consumption, and food gaps in developing countries. Results indicate that the COVID-19 lockdowns lead to a decrease in global GDP of 7.2 per cent, and a decrease in grain prices of 9 per cent. These changes lead to an increase in the number of food-insecure people in 2020 of 211 million (a 27.8 per cent increase). We also perform a sensitivity analysis, providing a lower and upper bound of potential impacts from COVID-19.

Using a generalized error correction model, this article measures and compares market integration for export cash crops versus imported food crops for Mali and Nicaragua, and computes transmission elasticities between changes in the goods' border and domestic prices. Both Mali and Nicaragua obtain the bulk of their export revenue from a particular agricultural commodity-cotton for Mali and coffee for Nicaragua-and both import the same key staple food of rice. To reap the economic gains from this trade specialization, the two countries' agriculture must be well-integrated into world markets. The two countries present an important policy contrast that affects their degree of world market integration and price transmission. In Mali, a parastatal enterprise controls its cotton industry, while Nicaragua has less state direction over agriculture. Reflecting this difference, the results show that for both its main export and import commodity, Nicaragua is more integrated into world markets and has higher price transmission than Mali. The results for Nicaragua also show much higher integration and price transmission for its main agricultural export (coffee) than its major import (rice).JEL classifications: D40, F15, Q11, Q17