Genetic modification of plants may result in unintended effects causing potentially adverse effects on the environment. A comparative safety assessment is therefore required by authorities, such as the European Food Safety Authority, in which the genetically modified plant is compared with its conventional counterpart. Part of the environmental risk assessment is a comparative field experiment in which the effect on non-target organisms is compared. Statistical analysis of such trials come in two flavors: difference testing and equivalence testing. It is important to know the statistical properties of these, for example, the power to detect environmental change of a given magnitude, before the start of an experiment. Such prospective power analysis can best be studied by means of a statistical simulation model. This paper describes a general framework for simulating data typically encountered in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. The simulation model, available as Supplementary Material, can be used to generate count data having different statistical distributions possibly with excess-zeros. In addition the model employs completely randomized or randomized block experiments, can be used to simulate single or multiple trials across environments, enables genotype by environment interaction by adding random variety effects, and finally includes repeated measures in time following a constant, linear or quadratic pattern in time possibly with some form of autocorrelation. The model also allows to add a set of reference varieties to the GM plants and its comparator to assess the natural variation which can then be used to set limits of concern for equivalence testing. The different count distributions are described in some detail and some examples of how to use the simulation model to study various aspects, including a prospective power analysis, are provided.

Environmental impacts of genetically modified crops are mandatorily assessed during their premarket phase. One of the areas of concern is the possible impact on nontarget organisms. Crops expressing Cry toxins might affect Lepidoptera larvae living outside cultivated fields, through pollen deposition on wild plants, which constitute their food source. While pollen toxicity varies among different events, possible exposure of nontarget species depends on the agro-environmental conditions. This study was conducted in two protected areas in Italy, characterized by different climatic conditions, where many Lepidoptera species thrive in proximity to maize cultivations. To estimate the possible exposure in absence of the actual stressor (e.g., Cry1-expressing maize plants), we conducted a two-year field survey of butterflies and weeds. Indicator species were selected-Aglais (Inachis) io in the Northern site and Vanessa cardui in the Southern site-and their phenology was investigated. Pollen dispersal from maize fields was measured by collection in Petri dishes. Duration and frequency of exposure was defined by the overlap between pollen emission and presence of larvae on host plants. Different risk scenarios are expected in the two regions: highest exposure is foreseen for A. io in the Northern site, while minimal exposure is estimated for V. cardui in the Southern site. In the latter case, locally grown maize cultivars flower in mid-summer in coincidence with an aestivation period for several butterfly species due to hot and dry conditions. Moreover, host plants of V. cardui are at the end of their life cycle thus limiting food availability.

Insect–plant interactions may be unintentionally affected when introducing genetically modified (GM) crops into an agro-ecosystem. Our aim was to test the non-target effects of a late blight-resistant GM potato on Myzus persicae in greenhouse and climate room experiments and understand how position and number of R gene insertions can affect non-targets in GM events. We also aimed to compare results to baseline differences among three conventional potato varieties varying in resistance to late blight. Aphid development and survival were affected by some GM events in the first generation, though effects disappeared in the second generation. Effects were not dependent on the presence of a marker gene or the insertion of a second resistance gene. Positional effects of gene insertion influenced aphid performance on certain GM events. However, aphid fitness varied considerably more between conventional potato varieties than between Désirée and the GM events. Comparing different GM events to the non-transformed variety is relevant, since unintended effects of insertion can occur. Our protocols can be recommended for in planta risk assessments with aphids. Ecological perspective is gained by selecting several measured endpoints and by comparing the results with a baseline of conventional cultivars.

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Insects are an emergent source of proteins in the world nutrition, both for humans and farmed animals, moreover they represent a novel food in Europe. The interest in Tenebrio molitor (L.) has particularly grown because its larvae are very rich of high biological value proteins. Although rearing of T. molitor has lately increased, the long-time conservation of alive larvae, very useful for both production and research, needs more information. Research studies conducted so far have investigated the reactions to low temperature on mealworms pupae and adults, or on larvae at 10 °C and for no more than 48 h. The aim of this study is to test the long-term effects of different times of cold storage at 10 °C on the larval survival and on the ability to become healthy adults and to potentially reproduce normally. The insects, divided in experimental groups, were refrigerated on sterile bran (and 10% of yeast) at 10±1 °C and 63% RH for 4 different periods of storage, from 30 to 120 days. Larval survival (i.e. number of larvae alive and number of pupae, expressed as a percentage), weight gain and presence of pupae were detected at the end of each period. The ability to complete the cycle was assessed by detecting the number of hatched pupae, deformed and well-formed adults. Our research results point out the possibility to store T. molitor alive larvae for long time (at least 120 days) at low temperature without significant negative effects on their ability to survive, with a relatively small loss (15.81%) and a very small percentage of deformed adults (4.07%). Further researches will be carried out to test the fertility of the well-formed adults and their ability to reproduce.