Objectives The aim is to present updated estimates of the size of Australia’s sexual minority adult population (gay, lesbian, bisexual, and other sexual minority identities). No estimate of this population is currently available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and very little is available from other sources. We obtained data on sexual minority identities from three data collections of two national surveys of recent years. Combining averaged prevalence rates from these surveys with official Estimated Resident Population data, we produce estimates of Australia’s sexual minority population for recent years. Results According to percentages averaged across the three survey datasets, 3.6% of males and 3.4% of females described themselves with a minority sexual identity. When applied to Estimated Resident Populations, this gives a sexual minority population at ages 18 + in Australia of 599,500 in 2011 and 651,800 in 2016. Population estimates were also produced by sex and broad age group, revealing larger numbers and higher sexual minority percentages in the younger age groups, and smaller numbers and percentages in the oldest age group. Separate population estimates were also prepared for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and other sexual minority identities.

Background  Demographers have studied minority populations for many years, but relatively little attention has been paid to sexual minority groups. Population estimates for sexual minorities would be useful as denominators for a range of health and socioeconomic indicators, to monitor representation in employment, assist budget planning and inform the marketing of goods and services. Aim The aim of this paper is to present some approximate estimates of the non-heterosexual adult population of Australia in mid-2016 by sex, broad age group and state and territory. Data and methods  Data on sexual identity were sourced from three nationally representative surveys: the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey, the second Australian Study of Health and Relationships and the ABS General Social Survey. Use was made also of 2016 ABS Census of Population and Housing (Census) data and Estimated Resident Populations. Prevalence rates of the non-heterosexual population aged 18+ were averaged over the three surveys and multiplied by ERP to obtain national population estimates. Census data on same-sex couples were used to distribute the national estimates by state and territory. Results  Australia’s non-heterosexual population aged 18+ in 2016 is estimated to have been 592,000, representing about 3.2% of the adult population. New South Wales is home to the largest non-heterosexual population (about 204,000) and the Northern Territory the smallest (4,700), while the highest prevalence is in the Australian Capital Territory (5.1%). Conclusions  Australia’s non-heterosexual population is a relatively small population, but its prevalence varies considerably by age and sex and between states and territories. Estimates of this population should prove useful for monitoring health and wellbeing and for a variety of planning and policy purposes.

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We measure the empirical distribution of the accuracy of projected population in subnational areas of England, developing the concept of 'shelf life': the furthest horizon for which the subsequent best estimate of population is within 10% of the forecast, for at least 80% of areas projected. Since local government reorganisation in 1974, the official statistics agency has projected the population of each local government area in England: for 108 areas in nine forecasts up to the 1993-based, and for over 300 areas in 10 forecasts from the 1996-based to the 2014-based forecasts. By comparing the published forecast (we use this term rather than projection) with the post-census population estimates, the empirical distribution of errors has been described. It is particularly dependent on the forecast horizon and the type of local authority. For 10year forecasts the median absolute percentage error has been 7% for London Boroughs and 3% for Shire Districts. Users of forecasts tend to have in mind a horizon and a required accuracy that is of relevance to their application. A shelf life of 10 years is not sufficient if the user required that accuracy of a forecast 15 years ahead. The relevant effective shelf life deducts the user's horizon. We explore the empirical performance of official sub-national forecasts in this light. A five-year forecast for London Boroughs requiring 10% accuracy is already beyond its effective shelf life by the time it is published. Collaboration between forecasters and users of forecasts can develop information on uncertainty that is useful to planning.

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