This paper investigates the impact of the Bolsa

This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Cross-sectional variation in climate among Brazilian municipalities is used to estimate an equation in which geographical attributes determine agricultural productivity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions based on atmosphere–ocean, coupled with general circulation models (for 2030–2049), are used to simulate the impacts of climate change. Our estimates suggest that global warming under the current technological standards is expected to decrease the agricultural output per hectare in Brazil by 18 per cent, with the effects on municipalities ranging from−40 to+15 per cent.

Climate change will exacerbate the vulnerability of places and people around the world in the next decades, especially in less developed regions. In this paper, we investigate future scenarios of population vulnerability to climate change for the next 30 years in 66 regions of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Based upon the Alkire & Foster Index, we integrate simulated and projected dimensions of population vulnerability into a Multidimensional Index, showing how scenarios of temperature change would affect each region's relative vulnerability in the future. Results suggest that economic and health dimensions are the highest contributors to increases in temperature-related vulnerability, with the poorest and agribusiness regions being the most impacted in decades to come.

O artigo descreve o processo de desenvolvimento da economia brasileira, ocorrido no período de 1970 a 2000, a partir dos dados dos Censos Demográficos, buscando identificar sinais de convergência ou agravamento das desigualdades regionais. Os resultados apontam para a existência de um processo de desenvolvimento desigual que é preservado ao longo das três décadas e vai além das divisões administrativas das Unidades da Federação ou da partição do país entre Norte, Nordeste, Centro-Oeste, Sul e Sudeste. North, Northeast, Central-West, Southeast and South. This paper presents the Brazilian process of economic development over the 1970-2000 period, analyzing whether there is convergence or not across municipalities. Based on data from the Demographic Census, the results point out to an unequal development process among regions. There is no evidence of convergence in the three decades analyzed, and the spatial heterogeneity goes beyond the geographical administrative divisions of the States or the macro regions INTRODUÇÃOSerá que a diferença observada nos indicadores das regiões mais pobres do Nordeste brasileiro em relação às áreas mais desenvolvidas do país tende a se reduzir ao longo do tempo? As condições de vida das áreas mais pobres tendem a convergir para aquelas experimentadas pelas regiões mais ricas do país? * CEDEPLAR/UFMG.