PurposeThe authors investigate the implications of environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices of firms for the pricing of their credit default swaps (CDS). In doing so, the authors compare European and US firms and consider nonlinear and indirect effects. This complements the previous literature focusing on linear and direct effects using bond yields and credit ratings of US firms.Design/methodology/approachFor this purpose, the authors apply fixed effects regressions on a comprehensive panel data set of US and European firms. Further, nonlinear and indirect effects are investigated utilizing quantile regressions and a path analysis.FindingsThe evidence indicates that higher ESG ratings mitigate credit risks of US and European firms from 2007 to 2019. The risk mitigation effect is U-shaped across ESG quantiles, which is consistent with opposing effects of growing stakeholder influence capacity and diminishing marginal returns on ESG investments. The authors further reveal a mediating indirect volatility channel that substantially amplifies the direct effect of ESG on credit risk. A one-standard-deviation improvement in ESG ratings is estimated to reduce CDS spreads of low, medium and high ESG firms by approximately 4%, 8% and 3%, respectively.Originality/valueThis is the first study to examine whether credit markets reflect regional differences between Europe and the US with regard to the ESG-CDS-relationship. In addition, this paper contributes to the existing literature by investigating differences in the response of CDS spreads across ESG quantiles and to study potential indirect channels connecting ESG and CDS spreads using structural credit risk variables.

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This study examines spillover effects following Volkswagen’s admission of emissions cheating. We first estimate initial operational losses of 8.45% of Volkswagen’s equity market capitalization on the date before the announcement, reputational losses up to five times these losses, and significant negative shocks to its stocks and bonds. Analyzing spillover effects from this shock beyond the usually only measured losses in equity value, we find significant negative net spillover effects to European competitors and suppliers in both stock and bond markets. Studying the economic effects in more detail, we show that Volkswagen’s total losses of 27.4 billion euros in terms of changes in equity market values over the first five event days are almost entirely composed of abnormal losses. Furthermore, competitors (suppliers) overall suffered 18.3 (12.6) billion euros of abnormal losses during this time, with 60% (69%) of the firms exhibiting negative changes, especially European competitors and suppliers connected to Volkswagen. These figures are further increased by negative bond market value changes. Overall, our results strongly emphasize that neglecting debt holders losses can lead to an underestimation of such events.

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