COVID-19 reaction policies have had the effect of putting the tourism economy into a form of forced hibernation. Currently there is speculation about what will happen as tourism begins to emerge from its dormant state. In this article, we use the concept of a system to analyze the potential research implications of COVID-19 effects on tourism. In doing so, we firmly place tourism within the concept of a system that relies on a steady flow of money from tourists to function. Three scenarios, each with two end states, to cover the array of potential reactions and recovery from the pandemic are presented. An impact grid is constructed to be able to follow the effects of policies and interventions on tourism objects and subjects. Examples of how research may use the grid to uncover impacts are presented. Conclusions reinforce the need for a system approach to guide COVID-19 tourism research.