AbstractThe International Prognostic Scoring Sytem (IPSS) is an important standard for ssessing prognosis of primary untreated adult patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). To refine the IPSS, MDS patient databases from international institutions were coalesced to assemble a much larger combined database (Revised-IPSS [IPSS-R], n = 7012, IPSS, n = 816) for analysis. Multiple statistically weighted clinical features were used to generate a prognostic categorization model. Bone marrow cytogenetics, marrow blast percentage, and cytopenias remained the basis of the new system. Novel components of the current analysis included: 5 rather than 3 cytogenetic prognostic subgroups with specific and new classifications of a number of less common cytogenetic subsets, splitting the low marrow blast percentage value, and depth of cytopenias. This model defined 5 rather than the 4 major prognostic categories that are present in the IPSS. Patient age, performance status, serum ferritin, and lactate dehydrogenase were significant additive features for survival but not for acute myeloid leukemia transformation. This system comprehensively integrated the numerous known clinical features into a method analyzing MDS patient prognosis more precisely than the initial IPSS. As such, this IPSS-R should prove beneficial for predicting the clinical outcomes of untreated MDS patients and aiding design and analysis of clinical trials in this disease.

Purpose The karyotype is a strong independent prognostic factor in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Since the implementation of the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) in 1997, knowledge concerning the prognostic impact of abnormalities has increased substantially. The present study proposes a new and comprehensive cytogenetic scoring system based on an international data collection of 2,902 patients. Patients and Methods Patients were included from the German-Austrian MDS Study Group (n = 1,193), the International MDS Risk Analysis Workshop (n = 816), the Spanish Hematological Cytogenetics Working Group (n = 849), and the International Working Group on MDS Cytogenetics (n = 44) databases. Patients with primary MDS and oligoblastic acute myeloid leukemia (AML) after MDS treated with supportive care only were evaluated for overall survival (OS) and AML evolution. Internal validation by bootstrap analysis and external validation in an independent patient cohort were performed to confirm the results. Results In total, 19 cytogenetic categories were defined, providing clear prognostic classification in 91% of all patients. The abnormalities were classified into five prognostic subgroups (P < .001): very good (median OS, 61 months; hazard ratio [HR], 0.5; n = 81); good (49 months; HR, 1.0 [reference category]; n = 1,809); intermediate (26 months; HR, 1.6; n = 529); poor (16 months; HR, 2.6; n = 148); and very poor (6 months; HR, 4.2; n = 187). The internal and external validations confirmed the results of the score. Conclusion In conclusion, these data should contribute to the ongoing efforts to update the IPSS by refining the cytogenetic risk categories.

Tumor protein p53 (TP53) is the most frequently mutated gene in cancer 1,2. In patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), TP53 mutations are associated with high-risk disease 3,4 , rapid transformation to acute myeloid leukemia (AML) 5 , resistance to conventional therapies 6-8 and dismal outcomes 9. Consistent with the tumor-suppressive role of TP53, patients harbor both mono-and biallelic mutations 10. However, the biological and clinical implications of TP53 allelic state have not been fully investigated in MDS or any other cancer type. We analyzed 3,324 patients with MDS for TP53 mutations and allelic imbalances and delineated two subsets of patients with distinct phenotypes and outcomes. One-third of TP53-mutated patients had monoallelic mutations whereas two-thirds had multiple hits (multi-hit) consistent with biallelic targeting. Established associations with complex karyotype, few co-occurring mutations, high-risk presentation and poor outcomes were specific to multi-hit patients only. TP53 multi-hit state predicted risk of death and leukemic transformation independently of the Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) 11. Surprisingly, monoallelic patients did not differ from TP53 wild-type patients in outcomes and response to therapy. This study shows that consideration of TP53 allelic state is critical for diagnostic and prognostic precision in MDS as well as in future correlative studies of treatment response. In collaboration with the International Working Group for Prognosis in MDS (Supplementary Table 1), we assembled a cohort of 3,324 peridiagnostic and treatment-naive patients with MDS or closely related myeloid neoplasms (Extended Data Fig. 1 and Supplementary Fig. 1). Genetic profiling included conventional G-banding analyses (CBA) and tumor-only, capture-based, next-generation sequencing (NGS) of a panel of genes recurrently mutated in MDS, as well as genome-wide copy number probes. Allele-specific copy number profiles were generated from NGS data using the CNACS algorithm 7 (see Methods and Code availability). An additional 1,120 samples derived from the Japanese MDS consortium (Extended Data Fig. 2) were used as a validation cohort. To study the effect of TP53 allelic state on genome stability, clinical presentation, outcome and response to therapy, we performed a detailed characterization of alterations at the TP53 locus. First, we assessed genome-wide allelic imbalances in the cohort of 3,324 patients, to include arm-level or focal (~3 Mb) ploidy alterations and regions of copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity (cnLOH) (Extended Data Fig. 3, Supplementary Figs. 2-4 and Methods).

Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is typically a very aggressive disease with poor outcomes, but some cases display an indolent behavior that might not necessitate treatment at diagnosis. To define molecular criteria that might permit recognition of such cases, we compared the clinicopathologic features, gene expression, and genomic profile of patients who had indolent or conventional disease (iMCL or cMCL). Patients with iMCL displayed nonnodal leukemic disease with predominantly hypermutated IGVH and noncomplex karyotypes. iMCL and cMCL shared a common gene expression profile that differed from other leukemic lymphoid neoplasms. However, we identified a signature of 13 genes that was highly expressed in cMCL but underexpressed in iMCL. SOX11 was notable in this signature and we confirmed a restriction of SOX11 protein expression to cMCL. To validate the potential use of SOX11 as a biomarker for cMCL, we evaluated SOX11 protein expression in an independent series of 112 cases of MCL. Fifteen patients with SOX11-negative tumors exhibited more frequent nonnodal presentation and better survival compared with 97 patients with SOX11-positive MCL (5-year overall survival of 78% versus 36%, respectively; P = 0.001). In conclusion, we defined nonnodal presentation, predominantly hypermutated IGVH, lack of genomic complexity, and absence of SOX11 expression as qualities of a specific subtype of iMCL with excellent outcomes that might be managed more conservatively than cMCL.