Abstract. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is projected to reach twice the preindustrial level by the middle of the 21 st century. This increase will reduce the 2 concentration of CO3-of the surface ocean by 30% relative to the preindustrial level and will reduce the calcium carbonate saturation state of the surface ocean by an equal percentage.Using the large 2650 m 3 coral reef mesocosm at the BIOSPHERE-2 facility near Tucson, Arizona, we investigated the effect of the projected changes in seawater carbonate chemistry on the calcificafion of coral reef organisms at the commtmity scale. Our experimental design was to obtain a long (3.8 years) time'series of the net calcificafion of the complete system and all relevant physical and chemical variables (tem•rature, salinity, light, nutrients, Ca 2+, pCO2, TCO2, and total alkalinity). Periodic additions of NaHCOz, Na2CO•, and/or CaC12 were made to change the calcium carbonate saturation state of the water. We found that there were consistent and reproducible changes in the rate of calcificafion in response to our manipulations of the saturation state. We show that the net community calcificafion rate suggests that saturation state or a closely related quantity is a primary environmental factor that influences calcffication on coral reefs at the ecosystem level. We compare the sensitivity of cal½ification to short-term (days) and long-term (months to years) changes in saturation state and found that the response was not significantly different. This indicates that coral reef organisms do not seem to be able to acclimate to changing saturation state. The predicted decrease in coral reef calcification •een the years 1880 and 2065 A.D. based on our longterm results is 40%. Previous small-scale, short-term organismal studies predicted a calcification reduction of 14-30%. This much longer, community-scale study suggests that the impact on coral reefs may be greater than previously suspected. in the next century coral reefs will be less able to cope with rising sea level and other anthropogenic stresses.

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The decrease in the saturation state of seawater, X, following seawater acidification, is believed to be the main factor leading to a decrease in the calcification of marine organisms. To provide a physiological explanation for this phenomenon, the effect of seawater acidification was studied on the calcification and photosynthesis of the scleractinian tropical coral Stylophora pistillata. Coral nubbins were incubated for 8 days at three different pH (7.6, 8.0, and 8.2). To differentiate between the effects of the various components of the carbonate chemistry (pH, CO 3 2-, HCO 3-, CO 2 , X), tanks were also maintained under similar pH, but with 2-mM HCO 3 added to the seawater. The addition of 2-mM bicarbonate significantly increased the photosynthesis in S. pistillata, suggesting carbon-limited conditions. Conversely, photosynthesis was insensitive to changes in pH and pCO 2. Seawater acidification decreased coral calcification by ca. 0.1mg CaCO 3 g-1 d-1 for a decrease of 0.1 pH units. This correlation suggested that seawater acidification affected coral calcification by decreasing the availability of the CO 3 2substrate for calcification. However, the decrease in coral calcification could also be attributed either to a decrease in extra-or intracellular pH or to a change in the buffering capacity of the medium, impairing supply of CO 3 2from HCO 3- .