The survival of captive‐bred individuals from release into the wild to their first breeding season is crucial to assess the success of reintroduction or translocation programmes, and to assess their potential impact of wild populations. However, assessing the survival of captive‐bred individuals following their release is often complicated by immediate dispersal once in the wild. Here, we apply Lindberg's robust design model, a method that incorporates emigration from the study site, to obtain true estimates of survival of captive‐bred Mallards Anas platyrhynchos, a common duck species released on a large scale in Europe since the 1970s. Overall survival rate from release in July until the onset of the next breeding season in April was low (0.18 ± 0.07 se) and equivalent to half the first‐year survival of local wild Mallards. Higher overall detectability and temporary emigration during the hunting period revealed movements in response to hunting pressure. Such low survival of released Mallards during their first year may help prevent large‐scale genetic mixing with the wild population. Nevertheless, by combining our results with regional waterfowl counts, we estimated that a minimum of 34% of the Mallards in the region were of captive origin at the onset of the breeding season. Although most released birds quickly die, restocking for hunting may be of sufficient magnitude to affect the wild population through genetic homogenization or loss of local adaptation. Robust design protocols allow for the estimation of true survival estimates by controlling for permanent and temporary emigration and may require only a moderate increase in fieldwork effort.
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Key-words:fish farming decline, fishpond, duck population, habitat use, carrying capacityFish farming abandonment or extensification may theoretically lead to contrasting consequences for waterfowl breeding in fishpond complexes. We investigated the variation of four indices of duck density or breeding success in pond samples of three main French fishpond areas: Dombes, Forez and Brenne, along with recent changes in fish farming management. In Forez, where fish stocking has been frequently interrupted or fish biomass in ponds has substantially decreased during the two last decades, duck pair density strongly increased in the same time interval, but Mallard Anas platyrhynchos brood size decreased. In Brenne, no fish farming abandonment was observed but pond fertilization with organic manure or mineral nitrogen became less frequently implemented during the 2000s. The duck brood: pair ratio decreased meanwhile, indicating either a lower nesting success or higher losses before or immediately after hatching. In Dombes, lower fish stock densities since the 1990s did not reverse a negative trend in duck populations which started in the early 1980s. Our results suggest that fish biomass density in fishponds might be a limiting factor for breeding waterfowl, but a decrease in the nutrient level, for example with lower fertilizer inputs, may negatively affect duck reproductive success. RÉSUMÉVariation temporelle de l'utilisation des étangs et succès de reproduction des canards dans les régions françaises d'étangs piscicoles : sur les conséquences possibles d'un déclin de la pisciculture Mots-clés :déclin de la pisciculture, étang aquacole, population de canard, utilisation de l'habitat, capacité d'accueil L'abandon ou l'extensification de la pisciculture dans les régions d'étangs peut théoriquement s'accompagner de conséquences diverses pour l'avifaune aquatique. Nous avons étudié l'évolution de quatre indices décrivant la densité et les résultats de la reproduction des Anatidés sur des échantillons d'étangs de la Dombes, du Forez et de la Brenne, simultanément à une évolution des pratiques piscicoles. Dans le Forez, où de plus en plus d'étangs ne sont plus régulièrement empoissonnés et où la biomasse piscicole a fortement diminué au cours des deux dernières décennies, la densité des couples de canards a nettement augmenté,
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