Compared to NVP, EFV is associated with a lower frequency of severe adverse events, in particular treatment discontinuations. This finding supports a move toward EFV-based therapy as the preferred first-line treatment regimen for HIV treatment within a public health approach.

This survey has provided valuable information on the uptake of ARTs in developing countries and will help forecast future demand. Reporting for second-line and pediatric antiretroviral therapy should improve as national programs gain more experience. The current availability of active pharmaceutical ingredients appears to be sufficient to meet current demand. Further work is needed for an understanding of switching rates.

A comparison of the results from the normative and empirical demand quantities suggests that more tenofovir, zidovudine and didanosine would be required if national treatment guidelines were fully implemented, whereas the countries seem to be using more saquinavir and nelfinavir than would be required by their current guidelines.

RFB is effective and safe in combination with the PIs studied, cost-saving for co-therapy with currently recommended boosted PIs, and may have a pivotal role in the roll-out of ART. Further research into a daily dose of RFB to simplify dosing regimens and developing fixed-dose combinations can enhance the public sector roll-out of ART.

Background. The rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings has greatly increased demand for antiretroviral medicines and raised the importance of good forward planning, especially in the context of the new 2010 WHO treatment guidelines. Methods. Forecasting of the number of people receiving antiretroviral therapy from 2010 to 2012 was produced using three approaches: linear projection, country-set targets, and a restricted scenario. Two additional scenarios were then used to project the demand for various antiretroviral medicines under a fast and slower phase-out of stavudine. Results. We projected that between 7.1 million and 8.4 million people would be receiving ART by the end of 2012. Of these, 6.6% will be on second-line therapy. High variation in forecast includes reductions in the demand for d4T and d4T increases in the demand for tenofovir, emtricitabine followed by efavirenz, ritonavir, zidovudine and lopinavir; lamivudine, atazanavir, and nevirapine. Conclusion. Despite the global economic crisis and in response to the revised treatment guidelines, our model forecasts an increasing and shifting demand for antiretrovirals in resource-limited settings not only to provide treatment to new patients, but also to those switching to less toxic regimens.